🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 2-India manufacturing expands, but exports a worry

Published 06/01/2009, 04:00 AM
Updated 06/01/2009, 04:08 AM
UBSN
-
TTEF
-

* Rises 2nd month in row, points to domestic demand revival

* Pickup in orders should drive growth in coming months

* Data comes after March quarter GDP beat forecasts

* Exports fall for 7th month in April, seen flat in 2009/10 (Adds export data, details)

By V. Ramakrishnan and Manoj Kumar

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, June 1 (Reuters) - India's manufacturing activity expanded for a second straight month in May to its highest level in eight months, reflecting a revival in domestic demand, but weak exports are likely to remain a drag on the economy.

Hefty interest rate cuts by the central bank and government stimulus packages have boosted optimism in recent months that a rebound in domestic consumption will pull the economy out of its slowdown faster than economists had expected.

Domestic demand accounts for 85 percent of India's economy, much higher than its Asian peers such as China, which are far more reliant on exports.

China's manufacturing sector also expanded moderately in May, showing the two big Asian economies were faring much better than their Western counterparts where similar indicators due later on Monday were expected to show deep contractions. [ID:nPEK17043].

The Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) based on a survey of Indian 500 companies, rose to 55.7 in May from April's 53.3, well above the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

It hit a trough of 44.4 in December and has risen steadily since then.

The manufacturing index was boosted mainly by the new orders index, which rose to 59.1 from 54.9 in April.

However, data on Monday showed exports fell by 33.2 percent in April from a year earlier to $10.74 billion, while imports dropped by 36.6 percent to $15.75 billion. [ID:nBMA003029].

Trade Secretary G.K. Pillai said exports would continue to decline until September, when the global economy is expected to be on more solid footing, and forecast total exports of between $168 billion and $170 billion in 2009/10, little changed from the year earlier.

"The picture that is emerging from recent data is some sort of a stabilisation in domestic demand, possibly due to higher government spending and restocking demand," said Sonal Varma, an economist at Nomura Research.

The PMI numbers come after data on Friday showed Asia's third-largest economy expanded faster than expected in the March quarter, boosted by strength in the farm and services sector. For a related story, please see [ID:nDEL396731].

"The pickup in new orders shows that domestic-demand should gather momentum in the coming months," Varma said.

Manufacturing makes up about 15 percent of India's gross domestic product and industrial output fell 2.3 percent from a year earlier in March, its steepest annual pace in at least 14 years. [ID:nDEL155586].

For a graphic of the PMI data, please click on:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/069/IN_INDPMI0609.jpg

Many analysts have upgraded India's growth projections this year after the Congress party-led coalition was re-elected last month, which could speed reforms. UBS said last week its lead indicator pointed to a recovery in the industrial sector by June.

Macquarie Research said it had raised its growth forecast for 2009/10 to 7 percent from 5.5 percent earlier. [ID:nBOM170650]

The economy grew at 6.7 percent in the 2008/09 fiscal year, much slower than average expansion of 9.4 percent in the previous three years to March 2008.

The central bank expects it to expand by about 6 percent in the current year ending in March 2010. It has slashed its benchmark lending rate by 425 basis points since October to 4.75 percent to spur growth.

"We believe that the bottom formation of the economy in this cycle is almost complete and the need for (more) aggressive fiscal and monetary policy actions will be limited," ICICI Bank said.

However, although domestic demand improved, the export sector which accounts for 15 percent of the GDP remained weak, Markit economist Gemma Wallace said.

"Data show that the sector is currently being carried by robust domestic demand, as export sales continued to fall," Wallace said.

Exports have fallen for seventh straight months as recession-weary global consumers cut back in spending. (Writing by Saikat Chatterjee; Editing by Ranjit Gangadharan & Kim Coghill)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.