🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 2-IMF tells Singapore to keep monetary policy on hold

Published 09/01/2009, 02:53 AM
Updated 09/01/2009, 02:57 AM
UBSN
-

* IMF says Singapore monetary policy appropriate

* Policy changes should wait until recovery is underway

* Singapore dollar weaker than equilibrium level

* IMF worried about worsening asset quality at banks (Adds details, quotes, economist comment)

By Lesley Wroughton and Nopporn Wong-Anan

WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE, Sept 1 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund advised Singapore to keep monetary policy unchanged until its economy recovers and to allow the Singapore dollar to strenghten once the upturn was visible.

In its annual review of Singapore's economy, the IMF said monetary policy was "broadly appropriate" and supportive of domestic demand without undermining exchange rate stability. The IMF's view is in line with economists' expectations.

"The focus now is to preserve financial stability and to ensure that Singapore is well positioned to rebound once the global economy recovers, taking advantage of the ample room for maneuver at the authorities' disposal," the IMF said in a statement late on Monday.

"Further along the recovery path, a tightening stance would be warranted to safeguard price stability, through targeting a trend appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate," it added.

Singapore's central bank manages monetary policy by adjusting the Singapore dollar against a secret basket of trade-weighted currencies. In April, it shifted the midpoint of the trading band lower, effectively a one-off devaluation of the currency.

Its next policy review is in October and many analysts believe the central bank will keep its accommodative stance despite a surprisingly strong economy in the second quarter.

"All comments we have from the authorities are that the recovery that appears to be taking place is not certain yet, as we are in a period of wait and see and inflation expectations are still very much under control," UBS economist Edward Teather said.

The report from the IMF, whose staff met Singapore officials in May, appeared to exclude second quarter gross domestic product, which grew 21 percent on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis from the previous quarter.

Singapore's economy would likely contract by about 8 percent in 2009, with the trough in GDP probably occurring in the fourth quarter, the IMF said, contrary to Singapore government expectations of a 4-6 percent contraction.

"If the IMF were to redo its work now, they would come to a much more sanguine conclusion," Teather said.

The IMF projected GDP should grow about 2.5 percent next year, but Singapore authorities believe growth could be stronger given signs of resilience in Asian trade and in advanced economies, the IMF said.

It also said its staff assessment of the value of the Singapore dollar showed the currency "appears to be somewhat weaker than its medium-term equilibrium level" but should recover once the world economy rebounds.

"The real effective exchange rate would likely strengthen, in line with fundamentals, once a global recovery takes hold."

It said the large fiscal stimulus provided by the government in January should limit damage from the recession on households and businesses. It also welcomed the authorities' readiness for further stimulus should the rebound prove weaker than expected.

The IMF noted there was broad consensus that bank's credit quality will go downhill as the recession drags on.

The view echoed market concerns as the Royal Bank of Scotland downgraded Singapore banks to "underweight" last week, citing risks of deterioration in their asset quality. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.