* IMF sees strengthening related to structural reforms
* Fitch endorses shift to rouble's free float regime
* C.bank says rouble retreat may come soon
(Adds Ulyukayev comments)
By Yelena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Russia is facing a solid and speedy strengthening of the rouble, the IMF said on Friday, even as the central bank poured cold water on the currency's recent appreciation trend with a forecast for a retreat.
The rouble enjoys the attention of investors hungry for high emerging market returns and keen to cash in on high oil prices, but the central bank -- worried about volatile speculative capital inflows -- has been at pains to stress that the currency should not be seen as a one-way rising bet.
The rouble could "in the fairly near future" weaken to 38
against a euro-dollar basket from 35.43 on Friday's close
The rouble also remains relatively strong against the
dollar, staying below 30 roubles per dollar since the beginning
of the year. On Friday, it closed at 29.90 roubles per dollar
The International Monetary Fund, however, argued that Russia -- which for years restrained rouble gains to support its fledgling industry and keep inflation in check -- needs to learn to live with "significant and fast real appreciation" of the currency.
"Real appreciation puts strong emphasis on structural reforms," Paul Thomson, head of the International Monetary Fund's mission to the country, said during a government conference on economic modernisation.
Economists point out that while Russia managed relatively successful macro and foreign exchange policies during the passing crisis, poor performance handling the real sector of the economy has led it to underperform its BRIC peers, with gross domestic product contracting an estimated 8.5 percent last year.
Only one other so-called BRIC nation, Brazil, saw its economy shrink in the aftermath of the global crisis, while others have expanded, with China growing an estimated 7-8 percent last year.
"There does seem to be a recognition that lagging structural reforms are the key to this underperformance," Timothy Ash, head of central and Easter Europe research at Royal Bank of Scotland, wrote in a note.
FREE FLOAT?
The Russian rouble remains a puzzle for investors, who in recent months have approached it as a tool for lucrative carry-trade gains, but remain unsure where the oil-driven currency is heading in the longer term.
A strong rouble might stress structural reforms, but also worries government that Russia's producers will lose competitiveness.
The central bank has been allowing increasing fluctuation in the rouble's exchange rate, promising a transition to a float in couple years. Nonetheless, for now the currency still trades in a tight range against a dollar-euro basket.
The central bank however maintains that the path to a "dirty" free float is on track, even if it has no plans to relinquish the right to continue interventions when necessary.
"As we move towards a free float, passive interventions on the boarders of the floating corridor will be gradually reduced. The share of active interventions within the corridor will grow as is happening now," central bank's Ulyukayev said.
So far this month, the rouble has remained within the floating corridor and the central bank has purchased several hundred million dollars in such active interventions -- also sometimes called planned interventions -- he said.
Fitch ratings agency urged the central bank in its report released Friday to seize the moment in handling the currency.
"The recession provides a good opportunity for Russia to reduce high inflation -- a long-standing ratings weakness -- and progress towards a more flexible exchange rate regime," the agency said in a statement.
At 8.8 percent last year, Russia recorded its lowest inflation since the fall of the Soviet Union, beating the original forecast of an 11-12 percent rise in consumer prices.
But not all analysts are convinced of the strength of Russia's determination to move to a free float soon.
"The pace of rouble appreciation in October and November appeared to alarm the government, and aspirations of a free float look even more remote," Oliver Weeks, an economist with Morgan Stanley in London, wrote in a recent note.
The rouble regained nearly half of its early-year losses during that period, as profit hungry speculative investors returned to riskier but higher yielding assets.
However, Weeks said that as long as oil prices remain high [O/I] keeping Russia's current account in surplus, pressures on the rouble to appreciate will continue. (Additional reporting by Lidia Kelly; Writing by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Ron Askew)