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UPDATE 2-IMF says Sweden's monetary policy is appropriate

Published 06/15/2009, 11:56 AM
Updated 06/15/2009, 12:00 PM

* IMF says Sweden cbank's monetary policy is appropriate

* Sees Sweden's GDP falling 6 percent in 2009

* Sees a modest recovery starting in the middle of 2010

(Adds quotes from press conference, background)

STOCKHOLM, June 15 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday Sweden's monetary policy was appropriate as it forecast a 6 percent contraction of the Nordic country's export-dependent economy this year.

The IMF said inflationary pressures in Sweden had eased since the autumn of 2008 and that Sweden would likely see a "modest" undershooting of its one to three percent inflation target this year.

"Monetary policy is appropriate," it said in a statement on the Swedish central bank's website, adding that the case for an immediate further relaxation was not compelling.

"It is important to realise that if in trying to do more, on the budget side or the monetary side, it may backfire," Peter Doyle, head of the IMF delegation, said at a press briefing.

"You may actually make your difficult problems even worse, so it is important to have a view about when you have done as much as you possibly can, and our view on the monetary and fiscal side is that time is now."

Quantitative easing options should only be considered if inflation expectations fall significantly on a sustained basis, the IMF said in the statement.

Sweden is facing its worst recession in more than half a decade as a global downturn has hit demand for the country's exports.

The central bank has responded by slashing rates to a record low of 0.5 percent and has considered extraordinary measures to boost growth, such as those already taken in Britain and the United States.

It has said it would probably buy government bonds as a first measure if it runs out of room to cut interest rates to boost the trade-driven economy.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to leave its key rate unchanged at its July 1 meeting as inflation pressure stays close to zero..

The IMF also warned of sharply higher unemployment in the Nordic country and said prpspects for the economy depended largely on developments abroad.

"Sweden was one of the first into the downturn ... Sweden could be one of the last out of recession," the fund said.

It said in the statement, which was published at the end of the fund's annual visit to the Nordic country, that Sweden's GDP would level off in 2010 with a "modest quarterly recovery" beginning at the middle of that year.

Sweden's gross domestic product fell by a record 6.5 percent in the first quarter, and the government expects the export-oriented economy to contract 4.2 percent this year and show only modest growth in 2010. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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