* Cbank cuts by 25 bps, less than analysts' fcast for 50 bps
* Fragile markets, risk appetite warrant caution-cbank
* Analysts see further cautious rate cuts in 2010
By Gergely Szakacs and Sandor Peto
(Adds more comments, detail)
BUDAPEST, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank (NBH) slowed the pace of its rate cuts on Monday saying the country's vulnerability to its high debt and a fragility in global markets warranted caution despite a deep recession.
The bank surprised markets by cutting its key base rate
The bank has cut rates by a total of 325 basis points since
July as Hungary gradually regained the trust of investors and
stabilised its finances. The key base rate
Inflation is expected to fall below the bank's 3 percent inflation target next year which would allow further rate cuts, but the forint and government bonds have weakened and have been volatile in the past month, which has made the bank cautious.
"It is visible that there has been a break in risk appetite and risk assessment," Governor Andras Simor told a news conference after the rate announcement.
Simor said even though a deep recession and the inflation outlook would allow a much lower key interest rate, rate setters must watch perceptions of risks attached to the Hungarian economy, and the appetite of investors for riskier assets.
"It is understandable that the Monetary Council does not act the same way as in previous months when the situation was different," he added.
Simor said the Council discussed two options, a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point cut, and there was a strong majority behind the smaller reduction this time.
In a Reuters poll last week 16 out of 23 analysts said the NBH would reduce rates by 50 basis points on Monday, six analysts forecast a 25 basis point cut and one said the bank would keep interest rates unchanged.
"The small move also suggests that easing will be cautious in Q1, and any potential signs of worsening market conditions could lead to a halt in the easing cycle (especially ahead of next spring's elections)," said Gyorgy Barta at CIB Bank.
The forint
MORE ROOM FOR CAUTIOUS CUTS
Czech and Polish rates stand at record lows of 1.0 and 3.5 percent respectively, and last week's surprise Czech cut of 25 basis points likely indicated the end of monetary easing there, analysts have said.
But Hungary, and Romania where the key rate is 8 percent and which also struggles with a deep contraction in its economy, probably have more room to cut interest rates.
"While policymakers (in Hungary) may now move in smaller steps than we had previously thought, the case for further monetary easing remains strong," said Neil Shearing at Capital Economics.
"Of course, Hungary's large proportion of fx-denominated debt and vulnerability to swings in investor risk appetite means that policymakers need to keep a close eye on the value of the forint," he added.
Hungary's economy is expected to contract by 6.7 percent this year and any recovery is seen very slow next year due to a plunge in domestic demand and banks' reluctance to resume lending. While Poland is seen recording positive growth already this year, Hungary is expected to stay in recession in 2010.
Parliamentary elections due in April or May 2010 increase uncertainty over the budget outlook.
"In order to reduce Hungary's high government debt and vulnerability to external shocks, it is particularly important to maintain a disciplined, long-term sustainable fiscal policy," the Council said in its statement on Monday.
Simor declined to predict where bank's easing cycle would bottom out but analysts in last week's Reuters poll projected the base rate would reach the bottom at 5.5 percent by the middle of next year.
(Reporting by Krisztina Than; Editing by Ron Askew and Toby Chopra)