(Adds Bundesbank figures, background details)
By Dave Graham
BERLIN, Jan 9 (Reuters) - German retail sales probably rose in the final two months of 2008, data showed on Friday, but support from shoppers is unlikely to have prevented a sharp contraction in quarterly economic growth.
Month on month, retail sales in Europe's largest economy rose by a bigger-than-expected 0.7 percent in real terms in November and likely increased in December too, preliminary Federal Statistics Office figures showed.
In recent months, German consumers have saved more than most Europeans and barely one in 20 have direct exposure to falling stock markets. Economists say this has helped to stabilise the domestic economy in the face of weaker foreign demand.
However, with unemployment on the rise again and a global downturn hurting German business, economists expect a weak 2009.
Sales in November were helped by a decline in energy prices and a long pick-up in the labour market which extended into the month, said Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank.
"But private consumption hasn't stopped the economy suffering a big collapse in the fourth quarter. We expect a contraction in GDP of two percent," he said.
Bundesbank President Axel Weber said on Thursday the German economy would end 2008 on a weaker footing than the bank had previously thought, only starting to regain momentum in 2010.
Many retailers have struggled this year, although the HDE industry association said Christmas sales held up well.
Stefan Geheeb, 55, who owns an electronics shop in Frankfurt, said the new year had not started badly for him.
"Christmas trade was satisfactory -- we had fewer customers than in previous years but those customers bought more expensive, high quality wares, and this is a trend we have seen continuing in January," he said.
Still, German do-it-yourself chain Praktiker
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT
A collapse in foreign orders has hit the wider economy hard. German exports posted a record fall in November as demand plummeted for cars and others mainstays of the economy.
The November retail sales rise, which was adjusted for seasonal swings, beat the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.4 percent gain. Compared with November 2007, which had one more working day than this year, sales were down 3.0 percent.
Over the first 11 months of 2008, sales were down 0.5 percent on the year. The Office estimated sales could be flat for the full year or show a decline of up to 0.5 percent.
The 2008 estimate was based on the assumption that sales were more likely to have risen in December, based on reports from the industry, a spokesman for the Office said.
A broader retail measure published by the Bundesbank, which includes car sales and turnover at gas stations, showed a November rise of 0.3 percent on the month, the bank said.
2009 OUTLOOK
Many economists fear shoppers could face a torrid 2009.
German unemployment rose in December for the first time in nearly three years, and further job losses are expected.
Deutsche Bank has predicted the German economy could contract by up to 4 percent this year -- which would been more than four times as bad as the country's previous post-war nadir.
If this were to come about, German unemployment could double to around 6 million, Goldman Sachs has forecast.
Sal. Oppenheim economist Ulrike Kastens said retail sales were likely to fall in 2009 despite cooling inflation.
"The (lower) oil price will have a stabilising effect but the negative effect from the labour market will be decisive," she said. "The prospects are pointing downwards and we don't know how far we're going to fall." (Additional reporting by Paul Carrel and Sarah Marsh; Editing by Patrick Graham and Jason Neely)