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UPDATE 2-Euro zone Sept prices fall, seen rising in Nov

Published 09/30/2009, 09:00 AM
Updated 09/30/2009, 09:03 AM
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(Adds economists' comments)

By Jan Strupczewski

GOTHENBURG, Sweden, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumer prices fell this month by more than economists had expected, data showed on Wednesday, but are seen growing again in year-on-year terms in November.

The expected rebound in November is due to the impact in year-ago comparisons of the steep fall in oil prices after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Prices in the 16-country area fell 0.3 percent year-on-year in September, the European Union statistics office said in an estimate released in Luxembourg. They had dipped 0.2 percent in August, 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June.

Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected a 0.2 percent fall in September.

"This is probably a temporary relapse, mainly related to food- and energy-price base effects," said Martin van Vliet, economist at ING.

The European Central Bank wants inflation to be just below 2 percent. It says it does not expect deflation, which it defines as prolonged price falls accompanied by expectations of more declines.

"The inflation rate will probably stay negative in October thanks to the recent slide in oil prices, while the first positive reading is still expected for November. At year-end, inflation will probably settle at 1 percent," said Marco Valli, economist at UniCredit.

With survey and hard data signalling the euro zone is likely to have emerged from recession in the third quarter, markets are speculating when the ECB might start tightening policy after cutting borrowing costs to 1 percent earlier this year.

A monthly consumer survey by the European Commission showed on Tuesday that inflation expectations among households and companies rebounded from all-time lows in September after six months of falls.

But economists said that even once prices start growing again, the rises will be small because firms continue to compete for market share at a time when demand is weak.

"The most likely scenario, in our view, is that inflation will also remain below the ECB's target of below but close to 2 percent in 2011. The benign inflation outlook means the ECB has plenty of time left before it needs to start reversing monetary stimulus," van Vliet said.

Economists now expect the bank will not raise rates until the third quarter of 2010.

A detailed breakdown of the inflation estimate and month-on-month data will be available on Oct. 15. (Editing by Dale Hudson and Stephen Nisbet)

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