* Econ chief reportedly said no consensus on IMF deal * Moody's rating probably won't change with or without IMF * Turkey can do without IMF funds for limited period
(Recasts, adds Babacan, markets)
By Selcuk Gokoluk
ANKARA, May 27 (Reuters) - Turkey's IMF loan deal is increasingly in doubt after a newspaper quoted economy chief saying that the government does not have consensus on an IMF deal, while Moody's said a deal won't change Turkey's rating.
Economy Minister Ali Babacan's comments published in Sabah newspaper were latest in a series of remarks coming from the Turkish policymakers, lessening the likelihood of an IMF deal in the immediate term.
"It is meaningless to talk to the IMF delegation without reaching a consensus in the government," the newspaper quoted Babacan as saying to bankers at a recent meeting. Babacan's office did not confirm the remarks to Reuters.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has said he would not agree to the IMF demands to curb spending and the Central Bank said Turkey needed a Plan B, pouring cold water into the market hopes for a quick deal that would bolster investor confidence.
The lira traded at 1.5570 against the dollar, slightly weaker than its opening level on Wednesday, and the benchmark Feb. 2, 2011, bond yield rose to 12.61 from a previous 12.44 percent.
Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday that Turkey's current Ba3 credit rating will probably not change whether the country signs an IMF loan accord. A credit rating upgrade would have been a crucial motive for Turkey to conclude IMF talks.
A $10 billion IMF stand-by agreement expired in May 2008 and the current talks are aimed at a new three-year stand-by deal.
"Whether or not the IMF and the Turkish authorities agree on a new programme, the Moody's rating is probably going to be unaffected," Moody's senior vice president Kristin Lindow said in a statement sent exclusively to Reuters.
Some comments in the Turkish media earlier this week that she was suggesting a credit rating upgrade if a programme is agreed are not accurate, she said.
Moody's said in a statement in April that Turkey's rating could be upgraded should the government demonstrate stronger capacity to generate revenues, manage its debts and introduce new labour market and public sector reforms.
"Turkish policy makers might thus be still asking themselves 'where's the beef' in terms of closing an IMF deal early if they don't benefit from a rating upgrade from their relatively lowly Ba3 rating," said Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Timothy Ash.
SUMMER MONTHS
Turkey can manage without the IMF financing in the summer, when its foreign exchange revenues from tourism reaches its peak, but lack of IMF funds will curb its growth rates, Moody's said.
"Our balance of payments analysis suggests that the government has room to do without an IMF financing programme for a limited time, i.e. during the summer months," Lindow said.
Turkey's current account deficit, a main weak spot of the economy when it posted growth rates averaging 7 percent, has nearly vanished in 2009 due to weak demand.
The deficit is traditionally lower in the summer thanks to large tourism revenues. But later in the year the deficit could come under pressure again as those revenues fade.
Turkey and the IMF can quickly reach a deal if serious market pressures emerge due to uncertainty about the macro framework, such as higher interest rates demanded in domestic debt auctions or lira weakness, Lindow said.
"Because so much negotiating has already taken place, we would assume that it could happen rather quickly if needed to calm nervous markets," Lindow said.
Absence of IMF funds would hurt Turkey's economic prospects this year. Moody's forecasts that the economy will shrink 4.0 percent, while the IMF sees a 5.1 percent contraction.
"The relative lack of external financing available to Turkey -- in the absence of an IMF programme with associated funding from other multilateral and bilateral sources -- is likely to constrain the growth rate of the economy due to the country's large investment needs and relatively low savings." (Editing by Andy Bruce)