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UPDATE 2-China sees exports bottoming out, remains wary

Published 08/12/2009, 06:24 AM

* Commerce Minister says export declines bottoming out

* Process may be unbalanced, key export markets still weak

(Adds Commerce Minister's comments)

BEIJING, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Chinese exports are bottoming out and will gradually improve over the rest of the year, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Wednesday.

But he said exports would still show a decline for all of 2009 because global recovery prospects were subdued.

"I believe this bottoming out process will be unbalanced and choppy, and we are already in the midst of it," Chen told reporters after a presentation by Jiangsu officials on the coastal province's development prospects.

Exports fell 23.0 percent in July from a year earlier, and imports were down 14.9 percent, the customs administration said on Tuesday.

However, after adjusting for the number of working days, exports rose 5.2 percent in July from June, while imports were up 3.5 percent.

"There are still many uncertainties in the world," Chen said.

"The real economy of western countries has not fully recovered and unemployment rates are high, so we can't have too high expectations of a rebound in global demand."

One of Chen's deputies, Vice-Minister Fu Ziying, also said it was too early to be sure that the tide had turned, even though exports were now falling less swiftly than earlier in the year.

"It is still hard to judge the trend of China's trade outlook in the second half," Fu told a news conference.

"The world economy is unlikely to recover in the short term, and the consumption habits in the U.S. and Europe have changed."

Huang Guohua, director of international trade statistics analysis at the customs administration, said exports for all of 2009 were likely to post a double-digit decline.

But he told a business group that he expected a significant improvement in the fourth quarter. Indeed, exports in December might be flat or higher than in the same month last year, Huang said.

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Despite his wariness, Fu said China had succeeded during the global downturn in increasing its share of some major export markets, notably the United States, the European Union and Japan, by more than three percentage points.

"China has done a better-than-expected job in maintaining its international market share," Fu said.

He reaffirmed Beijing's policy of encouraging local companies to expand overseas.

"Global industrial restructuring is providing excellent opportunities for Chinese firms to venture abroad, and falling global asset prices have reduced the cost of conducting mergers and acquisitions," he said.

Fu also said his ministry would introduce new measures very soon to support foreign direct investment, which has weakened in recent months.

He said China's vast market, low-cost labour force and improved industrial infrastructure made the country an attractive destination for FDI.

"We are confident of attracting foreign direct investment, although there are still many uncertain, unstable factors ahead," he said. (Reporting by Aileen Wang, Zhou Xin and Lucy Hornby; Editing by Alan Wheatley)

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