* Upgrades growth forecast, softens concern on C$
* Sees activity picking up around the world
* Reinforces pledge to hold rates at record low
* Canadian dollar rises, bonds fall (Adds details, reaction)
By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA, July 21 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at a record low 0.25 percent on Tuesday as expected, and gave a rosier economic forecast while softening its language on the strong Canadian dollar.
"There are now increasing signs that economic activity has begun to expand in many countries in response to monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and measures to stabilize the global financial system. However, the recovery is nascent," the bank said as it announced its rate decision.
It said it now sees the Canadian economy shrinking by 2.3 percent in 2009, not the 3.0 percent it forecast in April; and growing by 3.0 percent in 2010 rather than the 2.5 percent it forecast in April. In 2011, it sees growth at 3.5 percent rather than 4.7 percent.
The bank said the higher Canadian dollar and industrial restructuring were "significantly moderating the pace of overall growth". This was softer language than it used in June, when it said the "unprecedentedly rapid rise" in the currency could "fully offset" positive factors.
The Canadian dollar
"(The bank) still signals the high dollar is weighing on growth, but overall it's got a slightly more upbeat tone than I would have anticipated," said BMO Capital Markets deputy chief economist Doug Porter, adding that the new forecast for 2010 growth was significantly more optimistic than most predictions.
In language closely watched by the market, the bank said the overall risks to its inflationary outlook remained slightly tilted to the downside because it is not able to cut rates any further, while macroeconomic risks remained roughly balanced.
It still sees total inflation hitting a trough in the third quarter and core inflation diminishing in the second half of the year. But it now sees both measures returning to the bank's 2 percent target by the second quarter of 2011 rather than the third quarter of 2011.
"We're looking at a little stronger growth environment and a little less worrying inflation outlook ... or disinflation or deflation outlook perhaps," said Royal Bank of Canada chief economist Craig Wright. "It's a small step toward an eventual increase in interest rates but a small step, nothing significant."
The bank repeated its language that it "retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates." That is code for saying it could use quantitative easing -- effectively printing money -- if it had to. But it gave no indication it was considering this at the moment.
Noting that conditions in funding markets have continued to improve, the bank said it was reducing the minimum auction amounts in its term purchase and resale agreements (PRAs). The schedule can be found at http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/notices_fmd/2009/notice_270709.pdf
To reinforce its conditional commitment to keep rates unchanged till mid-2010, it adjusted its PRA schedule so that more of them will mature around that time. It is reducing the longest-term PRA to nine months from 12, and it will replace the one-month maturity with an additional nine-month maturity in every four-week cycle. (Additional reporting by Frank Pingue, Scott Anderson and Nina Lex; editing by Peter Galloway)