* Q3 export prices fall, but not as sharply as Q2
* Higher Aussie dollar helps check import prices
* All eyes on next week's Q3 inflation numbers (Adds poll forecasts for CPI, analysts comments)
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Australia's exports prices fell at a much slower pace in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, providing hope that the worst in the global downturn had passed and keeping the upward pressure on local interest rates.
Data on Friday showed export prices fell 9.6 percent in the third quarter, after tumbling by a record 20.6 percent in the previous quarter, with a high Australian dollar and a fall in commodity prices still hurting export earnings.
Import prices fell 3 percent, driven mainly by a near 10 percent rise in the Australian dollar as well as lower prices paid for industrial machinery and equipment.
The data feeds into the consumer price index (CPI) due next Wednesday, a figure that has become crucial for the monetary policy outlook since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shifted its focus to inflation as its major concern.
The higher Aussie, which scaled a 14-month high of $0.9330 this week, is expected to ease price pressures from imports, such as petrol. But analysts say a rise in government taxes, higher utility charges and higher public transport fares last quarter will keep chances for an upside reading to CPI very much alive.
"A higher-than-expected core CPI number next week could unnerve RBA officials, but only a substantial surprise would be sufficient to prompt a larger move (in interest rates)," said Helen Kevans, economist at JP Morgan.
A Reuters poll showed underlying inflation was expected to remain at 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and to ease slightly to 3.5 percent from a year earlier. But that would still keep the rate above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target of 2-3 percent target range.
"Solid growth prospects for the Australian economy are also underpinned by the improving growth outlook for a number of key economies amongst Australia's major trading partners," said James Mcintyre, an economist at Commonwealth Bank.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has said he would not be timid in removing some of the monetary stimulus put in place to help the economy through the global financial crisis. He added the cash rate would be raised to a "normal" level over time.
Stevens has declined to spell out what "normal" or neutral rate is, but former Governor Ian Macfarlane nominated a range of 5.25-6.25 percent.
Implied cash rates, based on money market and swap rates, are fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike and factoring in about a 33 percent chance of a 50 basis points rise on Nov. 3.
Over the next 12 months,, investors are factoring the cash rate to be at nearly 5.5 percent.
The continued drop in export prices saw the country's terms of trade, or what it gets for exports compared to what it pays for imports, fall a further 7 percent in the quarter. The terms of trade fell 15 percent in the second quarter.
Despite the drop, the RBA maintains the terms of trade remain at very high levels due to a strong recovery in Asia, and particularly China, which has supported demand for commodities.
Australia's terms of trade had climbed by a third in 2008 to a record high as the country rode a resources boom. Much of that came courtesy of huge price increases for coal and iron ore.
Global trade has since fallen off a cliff and major customers have won, or are pressing for, steep cuts in this year's contract deals.
Data on Friday showed the decline in export prices in the third quarter was largely driven by lower coal prices which were down 34.2 per cent, while iron ore prices dropped 12.1 percent. (Editing by Jonathan Standing & Kazunori Takada)