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UPDATE 1-Weak dollar adds to China's inflation risk -c.banker

Published 10/20/2009, 04:29 AM
Updated 10/20/2009, 04:45 AM

(For more stories on the Chinese economy, click [ID:nECONCN]) (Adds more quotes from Ma)

BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - A weak dollar could cause liquidity to flood into China and pose inflationary risks, a senior central banker said on Tuesday.

Ma Delun, a vice-governor with the People's Bank of China, said money would flow in from a rebound in the country's trade surplus as well as from investors betting on yuan appreciation.

His comments pointed to growing concerns among some officials, especially in the central bank, about domestic complications arising from China's tightly managed yuan policy, which has been controversial abroad.

Beijing has virtually repegged the yuan to the dollar since the global financial crisis worsened in July last year.

As a result, the yuan has tracked the dollar lower against the currencies of China's other major trading partners, such as Japan and Europe.

A big jump in September in China's foreign exchange reserves, at $2.27 trillion the world's largest, showed that inflows from abroad were already speeding up.

"In the circumstances of a falling U.S. dollar exchange rate, net capital inflows may intensify, adding to excessive liquidity pressure at home and increasing inflation risks," Ma said.

"With China's exports starting to stabilise, the trade surplus will remain at a high level," he added.

Traders are becoming more convinced that a resumption of the yuan's climb is just a matter of time.

One-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards hit a 14-month low on Tuesday, pointing to a 4.55 percent rise in the spot rate over the next 12 months. [ID:nPEK192464]

"The weakening dollar will build up expectations of yuan appreciation and attract huge flows of international capital back to China. All this will pose bigger challenges for our monetary policy," Ma said.

Restating official policy, Ma said China would continue to broaden the channels for capital to flow out of China. Beijing would also steadily promote yuan convertibility on the capital account, he added, without elaborating.

Turning to the domestic economy, Ma said growth last quarter was stronger than in the first half of the year.

Third-quarter GDP figures will be released on Thursday at 0200 GMT. The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for 8.9 percent year-on-year growth, although widespread and persistent rumours in the market point to a figure above 9 percent. [ID:nPEK219804]

"The overall economic performance is better than we expected early this year," Ma said.

But he cautioned that the global economic recovery was still uncertain and warned about the dangers of over-capacity, trade protectionism and the strategies of countries for withdrawing their stimulus.

"Taking a long-term view, inflationary pressure in China is gradually increasing," he said.

Ma was speaking at a financial forum in the Chinese province of Henan. The transcript of his speech was published on the Chinese Internet portal Sina.com. (Reporting by Zhou Xin and Simon Rabinovitch; Editing by Ken Wills)

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