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UPDATE 1-Venezuela passes Ukraine as riskiest borrower-CMA

Published 12/15/2009, 11:46 AM
Updated 12/15/2009, 11:51 AM

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LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Venezuela has overtaken Ukraine as the country with the world's riskiest debt, and the chance either economy will default on its debt is above 50 percent, credit default swap monitor CMA DataVision said on Tuesday.

Indebted euro zone member Greece has entered the table of top 10 riskiest sovereigns at number 8, with a 17.4 percent cumulative probability of default.

The quarterly table measures the prices of five-year credit default swaps -- used to insure against restructuring or default of debt -- collected by CMA from more than 30 market participants.

Venezuela, whose CDS prices show a 57.7 percent probability of default, slipped into recession in the third quarter and has the highest inflation rate in Latin America.

President Hugo Chavez' socialist government recently shut eight private banks in 11 days.

Ukraine, which has a 54.6 percent risk of default, has a fragile economy dependent on International Monetary Fund aid.

But the country's state energy firm Naftogaz successfully restructured $1.6 billion in debt in early October.

Argentina lies in third place with a 49.1 percent cumulative probability of default.

Argentina is moving to reach a restructuring deal with holders of some $20 billion in defaulted debt, in a bid to return to international capital markets.

Dubai, whose company Dubai World is seeking to restructure over $20 billion in debt, rose to sixth place in the table from eighth, with a 25.1 percent default probability.

Norway has the world's safest debt, at a 1.4 percent cumulative risk of default, and Germany comes in second at 1.9 percent.

(For graphic of world's riskiest and safest sovereign debt, go to http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/GLB_CMADFT1209.gif)

(Reporting by Carolyn Cohn; editing by Chris Pizzey)

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