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UPDATE 1-Ukraine economy index plunges again in Feb

Published 03/19/2009, 06:27 AM
Updated 03/19/2009, 06:32 AM

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KIEV, March 19 (Reuters) - Figures released by Ukraine's central bank, intended to replace data no longer provided by the government, show the economy still in a tailspin despite minor improvements the data it described as temporary.

The index of key Ukrainian indicators approximating gross domestic product, issued by the bank late on Wednesday, fell 29.9 percent in February after a 32.0 percent plunge in January.

In a statement issued late on Wednesday, the bank said: "Further worsening of foreign economic conditions and a significant decline in demand were the principal factors in the negative tendencies of development in Ukraine's economy."

It noted an "insignificant improvement" in production figures. But this was linked to "depreciation of the national currency, a minor rise in demand from Chinese and Indian companies (for Ukrainian exports), stable gas supplies to plants and a larger number of working days than in January".

The bank said the improvements had permitted a rise in capacity used in the metal sector to 60-65 from 35 percent last November and had caused a positive knock-on effect in allied industries.

"But we believe that positive trends in the metal sector is a temporary phenomenon given an expected decline in contracts over the course of the year," it said.

The central bank began issuing the index, based on figures from major industries, last month after the government said it would no longer issue monthly GDP figures, but instead provide them quarterly.

The bank then said the index accounted for more than 40 percent of elements in GDP calculation and amounted to "quite an accurate approximation of GDP". It said the figures had an error factor of 1.5-1.9 percent.

Ukraine posted GDP growth of 2.1 percent in 2008 and experts forecast a contraction in 2009 of at least 5 percent, though the government has predicted positive growth of 0.4 percent.

The economy has been hit hard by a fall in global steel and chemical prices, the hryvnia currency's steady decline against the dollar and the credit crunch. Industrial output shrank by 31.6 percent in February compared to the same month last year.

Experts say the hryvnia's depreciation and resulting price rises for imported goods had shifted domestic demand to Ukrainian goods. That had braked declines in the food and consumer goods sectors.

But overall declines in consumer demand also caused a decrease in retail trade by 11.6 percent compared to February 2008.

A 57 percent decline was noted in the construction industry. the only rise was recorded in agriculture -- 1.6 percent. (Reporting by Natalya Zinets, writing by Ron Popeski)

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