(Adds details, table)
KIEV, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine's grain harvest is likely to decline to 35.55 million tonnes next year from 48.1 million in 2008, the UkrAgroConsult consultancy said on Tuesday.
It said in a statement that 2009/10 grain exports were likely to fall to 15.27 million tonnes from 17.47 million in 2008/09 and the volume could include 7.0 million tonnes of wheat, 6.0 million tonnes of barley and 2.0 million of maize.
The consultancy said it had increased the 2008 grain crop forecast to 48.1 million tonnes from 47.7 million a month earlier due to a higher maize harvest this year.
The Agriculture Ministry has forecast a crop of at least 51 million tonnes in 2008.
UkrAgroConsult said farms were likely to reduce the 2009 grain sowing area to 14.98 million hectares (37.02 million acres) from 15.646 million in 2008 while grain yields could fall to 2.55 tonnes per hectare from 3.20 tonnes this year.
It said the 2009 wheat crop could fall to 16.5 million tonnes from 24.2 million in 2008, while the barley harvest could fall to 10 million from 12.3 million.
The consultancy forecast the 2009 maize harvest at 6 million tonnes compared with 8.4 million in 2008. GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES FOR 2009/10, 2008/09 *updated December 15
2009/10 2008/09
(estimate) (estimate)
TOTAL GRAIN Opening stocks (mln tonnes) 9.607 4.000 Area seeded (mln hectares) 14.980 15.646 Area harvested (mln hectares) 13.920 15.050 Yield (tonnes per ha) 2.55 3.20 Crop (mln tonnes) 35.550 48.100 Imports ('000 tonnes) 146 166 SUPPLY (mln tonnes) 45.303 52.266 Exports (mln tonnes) 15.270 17.470 DEMAND (mln tonnes) 39.079 42.659 Ending stocks (mln tonnes) 6.224 9.607
WHEAT Opening stocks (mln tonnes) 6.605 3.052 Area seeded (mln hectareas) 6.580 7.115 Area harvested (mln hectares) 6.000 7.000 Yield (tonnes per ha) 2.75 3.46 Crop (mln tonnes) 16.500 24.200 Imports ('000 tonnes) 3 3 SUPPLY (mln tonnes) 23.108 27.255 Exports (mln tonnes) 7.000 8.200 DEMAND (mln tonnes) 18.850 20.650 Ending stocks (mln tonnes) 4.258 6.605
BARLEY Opening stocks ('000 tonnes) 1.962 837 Area seeded (mln hectares) 4.820 4.230 Area harvested (mln hectares) 4.500 4.100 Yield (tonnes per ha) 2.20 3.00 Crop (mln tonnes0 10.000 12.300 Imports ('000 tonnes) 3 5 SUPPLY (mln tonnes) 11.965 13.142 Exports (mln tonnes) 6.0 6.0 DEMAND (mln tonnes0 11.050 11.180 Ending stocks ('000 tonnes) 915 1.962
MAIZE Opening stocks ('000 tonnes) 663 68 Area seeded (mln hectares) 1.800 2.530 Area harvested (mln hectares) 1.700 2.220 Yield (tonnes per ha) 3.50 3.78 Crop (mln tonnes) 6.000 8.400 Imports ('000 tonnes) 20 35 SUPPLY (mln tonnes) 6.683 8.503 Exports (mln tonnes) 2.000 3.000 DEMAND (mln tonnes) 6.220 7.840 Ending stocks ('000 tonnes) 463 663 (UkrAgroConsult) (Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; editing by Anthony Barker)