UPDATE 1-UK Q3 GDP unrevised; spending picture clouds outlook

Published 11/24/2010, 05:35 AM
Updated 11/24/2010, 05:48 AM

(Adds comment, detail)

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Britain's economy grew 0.8 percent in the third quarter, data confirmed on Wednesday, boosted by net trade outflows, but weakness in household and government spending highlighted risks ahead.

The Office for National Statistics said its second estimate of growth between July and September also confirmed the economy expanded by 2.8 percent compared with a year ago, in line with analysts' forecasts.

Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth, the most since the end of 2008, as exports grew faster than imports.

While the figures may reassure policymakers that a period of depreciation of the pound is helping to rebalance the economy, the recovery still faces headwinds from deep government spending cuts that will start to bite from next year.

"There's a bit of a disappointment with consumption, which may be a worrying prelude of what is to come," said Brian Hilliard, economist at Societe Generale.

New figures on expenditure showed household spending growth slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.7 percent in the second quarter, while government spending grew by just 0.4 percent, less than half the pace of the second quarter.

But markets took the data in their stride as it did not alter the view that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent for many months to come to shore up the recovery.

The government plans to slash spending by around 81 billion pounds over the next four years, with the loss of almost half a million public sector jobs. Welfare payments are also set to fall, while a rise in value added tax from January will put further pressure on household finances.

Analysts said they doubted the private sector would be able to make up the shortfall left by public spending cuts, after separate figures on Wednesday showed business investment fell 0.2 percent -- the first decline in almost a year.

It is also uncertain how well export demand will hold up, given the financial turmoil in parts of Europe, which is Britain's biggest trading partner.

"As the global economy slows, and the troubles in the euro area continue, the UK's ability to export its way out of the recession remains in doubt," said Hetal Mehta, economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

(Editing by John Stonestreet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.