UPDATE 1-Turkish markets rise on investment grade hopes

Published 11/09/2010, 11:43 AM
Updated 11/09/2010, 11:48 AM

* Stocks close at new record high

* Investment grade expectations back buying

* Treasury confirms successful Eurobond sale

(Updates with closing figures)

By Selcuk Gokoluk

ANKARA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira and stocks ended higher on Tuesday on hopes the country's debt will be upgraded to investment grade and on a successful Treasury debt auction, erasing earlier falls on growing European debt worries.

Bonds also held firm as next week's religious holiday prompted investors to keep positions in the Turkish government debt to benefit from relatively higher yields.

"London-based sales in the bond market were offset by local banks and others. It appears that there was not very serious profit-taking because when the sales reach a certain level, many buyers emerge as the market is very strong," said Yagiz Oral, an Istanbul-based dealer in Denizbank.

Turkish markets are increasingly expecting a credit rating agencies to upgrade Turkey's sovereign debt ratings to investment grade, and many banks point to 1.37 as a target level for the dollar/lira rate, he said.

Moody's said last week Turkey could get a credit rating upgrade if its fiscal fundamentals improve.

Moody's rates Turkey Ba2 -- two notches below investment grade -- and has an outlook "positive" on its rating. Moody's last upgraded Turkey's rating in January.

Standard and Poor's rates Turkey on par with Moody's at BB, while Fitch rates it the highest at BB+ -- or one notch under investment grade.

Hedge funds actively sold euro and purchased lira on Tuesday.

"As long as something that does not change this sentiment, we will not see serious sales neither in forex nor in bonds," Oral said.

The lira weakened against the dollar in the morning session but recouped its losses in the afternoon to close at 1.4055, a touch stronger than the previous session's 1.4090 closing level.

The yield on the benchmark Aug. 8, 2012 bond was a tick higher at 7.65 percent from the previous day's 7.63 percent. The Turkish Treasury confirmed on Tuesday it had raised 500 million euros at a yield of 4.25 percent by re-opening its euro-denominated bond due May 18, 2020. Proceeds will be used to help pre-finance the country's 2011 borrowing programme.

The bond attracted 4.6 billion euros of orders from 13 countries and achieved the lowest cost of borrowing of any euro-denominated bond by Turkey to date, the Treasury said.

"The amount and quality of the demand for the transaction has reconfirmed investors' strong and continuing confidence in the Turkish economy," the Treasury said.

Proceeds from the issue will be transferred to the Treasury accounts on Nov. 12.

"This is a very good price considering Spain's 10-year bonds are trading around 4.4 percent yield. In other words, the debt market already upgraded Turkey's credit rating," said Tera Brokers in a note to clients.

Bond investors await a central bank rate-setting meeting on Thursday for clues on the interest rates in the coming months. The bank has kept its benchmark interest rate at 7.0 percent since May despite rising inflation.

The National ISE 100 index edged 0.85 percent higher to 71,543.26 points, or its highest closing level, outperforming the MSCI index of benchmark emerging stocks which rose 0.4 percent.

Turkish stocks have risen 34 percent since the start of the year, far exceeding most other emerging country stock markets. (Editing by Ron Askew)

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