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UPDATE 1-Turk stocks hit record high, CB says no 2010 rate hike

Published 07/27/2010, 12:21 PM
Updated 07/27/2010, 12:24 PM

* Central bank cuts inflation f'cast to 7.5 percent

* Central bank says policy rate hikes seen next year

* Lira, bonds firmer

(Adds closing prices, quote)

By Thomas Grove

ISTANBUL, July 27 (Reuters) - Turkish equities closed at a record high on Tuesday, while bonds firmed after the central bank cut its inflation expectations and said interest rates would not rise until next year.

Turkish stocks have been among the top gainers of any emerging market in 2010, rising 14 percent since the beginning of the year.

Analysts said Turkish banks were expected to report strong second-quarter results in early August, and could give fresh impetus to the Istanbul exchange, which has been hovering around the psychologically important 60,000 point mark.

On Tuesday, Turkey's top 100 index closed 1.38 percent higher at a record 60,328.94. The index also briefly touched 60,662, a new intraday record.

A banking sector index jumped 1.7 percent.

"Second quarter (bank) earnings are estimated to contract by 12 percent quarter on quarter following the strong bottom lines of the first quarter, but to yield 10 percent year on year growth nevertheless" said Istanbul-based Ata Invest in a note.

Ata said it expected Halkbank, Isbank and Akbank to face the lowest decline in net earnings, while Bank Asya is estimated to report the highest quarter on quarter growth.

"To see if this is sustainable I would like to see this drive broaden beyond one or two names. This drive needs to be confirmed by other stocks," said Tunc Yildirim, an analyst at Dundas Unlu in Istanbul.

The central bank said on Tuesday it was cutting its end-2010 inflation target to 7.5 percent, from 8.4 percent, and that it would wait until next year before making "moderate" rises in interest rates.

The yield on the benchmark April 25, 2012 bond dropped to 8.17 percent from Monday's close of 8.24 percent.

The Turkish lira firmed to 1.5100 against the dollar on the interbank market from the previous day's close of 1.5185, buoyed by European emerging market currency moves.

The Turkish Treasury on Tuesday sold a net 848.7 million lira in a tap of a 10-year bond, maturing on Jan 15, 2020, at an average yield of 8.98 percent, central bank data showed, above an 8.94 percent forecast.

It also sold 749.4 million lira of a July 20, 2011 discount bond at an average compound yield of 7.8 percent, compared with a forecast of 7.87 percent in a Reuters survey of seven banks.

A July 19, 2017 floating rate note (FRN) netted 507.3 million lira with an average price of 100.031 lira, compared with a forecast of 99.67 lira.

Turkey's Treasury faces redemptions of 12.7 billion lira in July. (Editing by Susan Fenton and Andrew Heavens)

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