* Swiss govt sees GDP down 1.7 percent 2009, up 0.4 percent in 2010
* Swiss exports fall 15 percent y/y but rise m/m in August
* Govt says unemployment set to rise further in 2010
(releads, adds trade data, Swiss franc, background)
By Sven Egenter
ZURICH, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Swiss government raised its economic growth forecast on Tuesday and a monthly rise in Swiss exports added to signs that the country was moving out of its worst recession in decades.
Switzerland's gross domestic product should fall by 1.7 percent this year and grow by 0.4 percent in 2010, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said on Tuesday.
Swiss exports rose by 2.0 percent on the month in real terms when adjusted for seasonal swings, data from the Swiss Federal Customs Office showed. But exports were still 15 percent down compared to last year.
"Exports have always led the recovery in the past and this will be the case this time again," ZKB analyst David Marmet said. "At the end of the third quarter and in the foruth quarter, we should see a positive growth contribution.
The Swiss franc nudged up after the trade data, moving to a 14-month high against the dollar at 1.0234 per dollar.
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In June, the government had forecast a 2.7 percent drop in 2009 and a 0.4 percent fall in 2010.
Switzerland slipped into its worst recession in decades in mid-2008, as demand for its export products collapsed due to the global crisis, and the country had to rescue its largest bank, UBS. But it has weathered the crisis better than many of its peers as its consumers kept spending up.
Positive news from key Swiss markets such as Germany have raised hopes that the economy may also be growing again.
"The global economy is currently recovering faster than anticipated from the previous strong economic slump," the Swiss government said in its forecast update.
"In Switzerland, too, the recession has slowed down in the second quarter, and for the second half of the year, a positive change is underway," the SECO economists said.
The government's new forecast is in line with the Swiss National Bank's latest prediction, increased last week. The central bank stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy last week, pointing to high uncertainties for the economy.
SNB Vice-Chairman Philipp Hildebrand reiterated the central bank's cautious outlook late on Monday, warning that a sustainable recovery was far from certain.
"There have been an increasing number of encouraging signs recently but the situation in many parts of the economy remains fragile," Hildebrand said.
The government also pointed to a number of risks for the economy and cautioned that unemployment was set to rise even if the recovery gained traction.
The SECO forecast a rise in the unemployment rate to an average of 5.2 percent next year from 3.8 percent in 2009, hitting levels not seen in Switzerland since the mid-1990s.
For the SECO statement click on: www.seco.admin.ch/themen/00374/00375/00376/index.html?lang=en
(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)