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UPDATE 1-Swiss exports up in Dec, 2009 trade weakest in decades

Published 02/04/2010, 04:34 AM
Updated 02/04/2010, 04:36 AM

* 2009 foreign trade sees sharpest decline in decades

* Dec. exports rise y/y for first time in 14 months

* Dec. Swiss exports rise y/y by a real 1.7 pct

(Adds watch exports)

By Catherine Bosley

ZURICH, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Switzerland's exports in December rose year-on-year for the first time in 14 months, the Federal Customs Office said on Thursday, a further indication the Alpine country's economic upswing remained on course.

Exports from Switzerland rose year-on-year by a real 1.7 percent (4.2 percent nominal) in December to 14.4 billion Swiss francs ($13.6 billion). In real, seasonally adjusted terms, they fell 1.6 percent from the previous month, the office said.

However, the customs office also said Swiss foreign trade in 2009 had suffered the sharpest decline in decades due to the global economic crisis.

Exports slumped by 14.7 percent in real terms, the sharpest annual decline since 1944, the office said.

"We expect (export recovery) to continue in the first half of this year, supported by the global economic upturn," said Alessandro Bee of Sarasin.

"(But) the upturn will slow down a bit in coming months. We're seeing still a base effect because exports fell off a cliff in the fourth quarter of last year," Bee said.

Swiss watch exports, which account for about 7 percent of total exports, also ticked lower in December from the previous month. [ID:nLDE6121FR]

Switzerland emerged from a deep recession last summer and recent economic data, including the leading KOF barometer, indicate recovery is continuing, albeit at a slower pace. [ID:nLDE60R1LJ]

The Swiss National Bank has already started to unwind its unconventional measures taken to counter recession and deflation risks, and many economists expect a first, small interest rate increase in the second half of 2010. <0#FES:>

However, SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand has said the central bank's moderately optimistic outlook was fraught with very large uncertainties.

Bee of Sarasin said he believes the SNB will keep rates on hold for the timebeing.

"Export numbers are important (for the SNB) because exports are the drivers of the Swiss economy," he said. "However, according to our scenario we see a good first half of the year for Switzerland but then a cooling off in the second. That's why we think interest rates will remain constant."

The central bank has also pledged it will continue to fight any excessive rise of the Swiss franc against the euro -- which hampers Swiss exporters.

"Economies are faring better in Asia, and that's reflected in the Swiss exports data. The EU is still weak, the economic cycle there's not that far yet. But we're optimistic that if the euro recovers in coming months that we'll see better figures from that side," Bee said.

Watch exports to China rose 43.5 percent and were up 27 percent to Hong Kong, the industry's biggest market, while demand in the United States fell 15.7 percent, according to data from the watch industry federation.

The SNB expects the Swiss economy to grow by 0.5 to 1.0 percent this year after shrinking by 1.6 percent in 2009. ($1=1.060 Swiss Franc) (Additional Reporting by Sam Cage; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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