(Adds details, background, analyst comment)
By Katie Reid
ZURICH, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Switzerland is likely to see zero economic growth in 2009 as the global downturn weighs on demand for exports, the country's main growth driver, Swiss business body economiesuisse said on Wednesday.
An upturn for the economy is expected to begin only between June and December 2009, while the economic recovery in the European Union is not expected until between September 2009 and March 2010, Switzerland's largest business body said.
"For 2009, economiesuisse expects zero growth in the case that the situation in the financial markets does not worsen further," it said in a statement.
The body also said it sees a technical recession as the fourth quarter is likely to be weaker than the year-ago period, while the first two quarters of 2009 are expected to be negative as exports are hit by the general contraction in Europe.
The rise in the Swiss franc versus the euro in the last few months is also likely to impact exports, economiesuisse said.
Analysts expect the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates at its next quarterly review this month after surprising markets with a 100 basis-point cut to 1.0 percent in November as it tries to stave off a recession.
"The economiesuisse forecast for growth is quite pessimistic but it is clear that the Swiss economy is experiencing a sharp downturn, which will cross over to the first half of 2009," said 4Cast Limited analyst Saara Tuuli.
"Given that the Swiss economy is a small export-dependent economy, much of Swiss 2009 growth will depend on the performance of the euro zone economy -- which most forecasts see as negative overall. Indeed we see quite a large risk of deflation in Switzerland from May 2009 onwards," Tuuli said.
Inflation is expected to be "slightly above 1 percent" on average in 2009 as raw material prices ease, economiesuisse said, below the Swiss National Bank's threshold for price stability of 2 percent.
Unemployment is seen rising to an average 3.2 percent next year, from 2.5 percent in 2008.