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UPDATE 1-SNB seen on hold as govt gives sceptical 2011 outlook

Published 09/16/2010, 02:47 AM
Updated 09/16/2010, 02:52 AM

* Swiss govt sees growth slowing to 1.2 pct in 2011

* Raises 2010 GDP f'cast to 2.7 pct on strong H1 growth

* Sees avg inflation slowing to 0.6 pct in 2011

* SNB seen striking similar tone in rate decision

(Adds details, analysts view, background)

ZURICH, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Swiss government cut its growth forecast for the Alpine economy for next year on Thursday, saying that a weaker global economy and the strength of the Swiss franc will slow its brisk recovery.

The government's more sceptical view may set the tone for the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision and assessment of the economy later in the day, when the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady due to the bleaker outlook.

The government predicted growth of 1.2 percent for 2011, compared to its June forecast of 1.6 percent growth, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said.

"The prospects for 2011 are less positive than recently assumed, due to modest world economic prospects as well as higher valuation of the Swiss franc producing significant drag and having a negative influence on Swiss export growth," it said.

The trade-weighted exchange rate of the franc against 40 main trading partners stood now at levels last seen in the mid-90s, the SECO said.

"A gain in value of this magnitude will lead to significant drops in export growth," it said, adding that export growth should slow to 2.2 percent in 2011 from 7 percent in 2010.

The franc has been gaining steadily since the central bank halted intervention to quell its rise in June. It hit a record high against the euro last week at 1.2763 and the SECO said a further rise could not be excluded.

NO INFLATION

The SECO raised its forecast for 2010 growth to 2.7 percent from 1.8 percent, due to the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year.

The SECO said that inflation should even ease further into 2011, lowering its forecasts for 2010 to 0.7 percent and to 0.6 percent for next year, well below the central bank's threshold for price stability of 2 percent.

The central bank was now set to echo the SECO's assessment and keep interest rates on hold as the weakening of the global economy would inevitably hit the export-dependent country, Sarasin analyst Ursina Kubli said.

"In such an environment, the SNB just cannot hike rates," she said.

In a Reuters poll conducted between Sept. 7 and 9, 37 of the 38 economists saw the SNB keeping its 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25 percent.

Switzerland has emerged from a deep recession less bruised than other countries thanks to the resilience of its consumers. While the economy has recorded strong growth over the past quarters, indicators point to an imminent slowdown. (Reporting by Sven Egenter; editing by Patrick Graham)

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