UPDATE 1-SNB's Hildebrand: global recovery remains fragile

Published 10/08/2010, 05:13 AM
Updated 10/08/2010, 05:16 AM

* SNB chief says recovery not self-sustained

* Says ensuring fiscal consolidation, price stability key

* IMF sees Swiss GDP up 2.9 pct in 2010, 1.7 pct in 2011

(adds details, magazine interview, job data, background)

ZURICH, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The recovery of the global economy remains fragile and is not yet self-sustained, the head of the Swiss central bank said on Friday.

Swiss National Bank chairman Philipp Hildebrand said in a statement published on the International Monetary Fund's website that policy makers had to strike a difficult balance between keeping the economy going in the near term and laying the foundation for longer-term growth.

"The global recovery is ongoing but remains fragile. It is not yet self-sustained," Hildebrand said.

"Many countries emerge from this crisis with high debt burdens, and many central banks have yet to exit from unconventional policy measures," Hildebrand said.

"Firm commitments to long-term fiscal consolidation and price stability are essential," he said.

Hildebrand is in Washington for the twice-yearly IMF and World Bank meeting.

His comments echo the SNB's assessment from September, when it held its target for the 3-month franc LIBOR unchanged at ultra-low levels and warned against a marked slowdown of the Swiss economy next year following growth of around 2.5 percent in 2010.

The IMF struck a more optimistic tone than the SNB, raising its forecast for Swiss growth in its latest World Economic Outlook to 2.9 percent in 2010, slowing to 1.7 percent in 2011.

FRANC HIT

Markets have pushed back expectations of SNB interest rate increases into the second half of 2011 after the SNB slashed its inflation forecast on the back of a surging Swiss franc.

The franc has risen some 10 percent against the euro and some 7 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year and the rise picked up speed after the SNB dropped its currency interventions in June.

While the currency trades near a record high against the dollar, it hit an 8-week low versus the euro on Friday.

Hildebrand told a trade union magazine in an interview that the SNB's mandate was key for this decision.

"The mandate of the national bank is to keep inflation below two percent, but also to prevent a deflationary spiral kicking in," he told the magazine work. "By mid-June, it was clear that the deflation danger had gone for the time being."

Asked whether the SNB had the means to achieve anything given the size of the currency market, Hildebrand said: "We can. But it comes at a cost."

The SNB has come under fire after reporting a loss of 14.3 billion francs on its currency reserves, built up through massive interventions, due to the euro's weakness.

So far, the economy has coped well with the currency's strength, outpacing many of its European neighbours thanks to the resilience of Swiss consumers.

A further fall in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent in September supported the view that consumption would bolster the recovery even as exporters suffered from the franc's strength.

In a recently published SNB survey, only around one quarter of companies said their business was suffering from the strong franc.

Third-quarter sales from Swiss fragrance and flavour maker Givaudan -- published on Friday -- reflected the healthy recovery as well as the franc impact.

The group posted a sales increase in local currencies of 8.5 percent, driven by buoyant demand from emerging markets, but the rise was only 5.2 percent, calculated in Swiss francs. (Reporting by Sven Egenter, editing by Tim Pearce)

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