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UPDATE 1-Slovakia says economy may contract for first time

Published 03/31/2009, 09:22 AM

(Combines with Prime Minister comments, adds background)

BRATISLAVA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy may show the first annual contraction ever this year, officials said on Tuesday, signalling the eurozone newcomer is feeling more impact from the global financial crisis than previously expected.

Prime Minister Robert Fico said contraction could be as deep as 1 percent, while central bank governor Ivan Sramko also said he could not rule out negative growth this year.

"In the euro zone, the fall of economic growth is expected at minus 3 percent, on average," Fico told journalists after the meeting of the government's anti-crisis council.

"Even the most pessimistic predictions say Slovakia is at least 2, maybe 3 percentage points above the euro zone average."

The Slovak Statistics Office said Slovakia has not had negative economic growth since it emerged as an independent state in 1993 following the peaceful break-up of Czechoslovakia.

The central bank now expects real gross domestic product growth of 2.1 percent, and the finance ministry predicts 2.4 percent rise, but both institutions have pointed to downside risks to their forecasts.

Slovakia has not had to bail out any of its banks because they have focused mainly on domestic financing covered by deposits.

But the small economy has been hit by weakening demand for its main exports -- cars and electronics goods -- as consumers in the West curtail spending. Slovakia posted 6.4 percent GDP growth in 2008.

Slowing economic growth will curb state budget revenues and may push the fiscal gap above the targeted 2.1 percent of GDP unless the government cuts spending.

The cabinet has so far taken cautious approach to stimulating the economy through increased state spending, saying it did not want to push the fiscal deficit above the limit of 3 percent of GDP set in the EU's Stability and Growth Pact.

Fico, whose anti-crisis measures have focused mainly on preserving employment, reiterated on Tuesday his intention was not to boost the fiscal gap too much.

"If there is an increase in the deficit, it must be a temporary phenomenon. The council for economic crisis recommends to the government to take such measures that would not increase the deficit excessively," Fico said. (Reporting by Peter Laca; editing by Chris Pizzey)

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