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UPDATE 1-Russia RTS scales 1,000 pts, rouble at 4-mth high

Published 05/13/2009, 04:40 AM
Updated 05/13/2009, 04:48 AM
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* Russian shares, rouble hit fresh highs

* Future gains depend on oil, global backdrop

MOSCOW, May 13 (Reuters) - Russia's benchmark RTS index rose above 1,000 points for the first time since October, while the rouble scaled four-month highs versus the dollar on Wednesday, cheered by strong oil prices and growing investor risk appetite.

Russia's markets were heavily hammered in the second half of last year, as investors were spooked by high-profile corporate wrangles, a brief summer war with Georgia, falling oil prices, and a darkening economic outlook at home and abroad.

However, although the Russian economy is still very much in the midst of its first recession in a decade, investor appetite has returned in recent months thanks to the end of rouble depreciation and a recovery in the price of oil.

The dollar-denominated RTS rose as high as 1,002.39 points, taking its gains for the year to date to 57 percent. However, it still has a long way to go to recapture record highs around 2,500 seen in the middle of 2008.

"I think the 1,000 points could turn out to be a kind of resistance level. But if the external backdrop remains positive, especially if the rise in global bourses is supported by higher oil prices, then the rally could continue," said Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank in Russia.

The MICEX, an indicator of more liquid rouble trade, rose to its highest level since late September on Wednesday, up 73 percent since the start of 2009. The MSCI emerging markets index is up 27 percent so far this year.

FUELLED BY OIL

Russia has enjoyed eight straight weeks of fund inflows, data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research shows.

Urals oil export blend held around $55.50 a barrel -- nearly $15 above the level factored into the government budget.

"Oil is the best fuel for rouble gains," Uralsib analysts said in a research note, adding that current oil prices justified a rouble rate of around 30 per dollar.

The rouble strengthened beyond 32 per dollar for the first time since mid-January. Versus a euro-dollar basket, on which the central bank bases its policy, the rouble strengthened to a new four-month high of 37.23.

The central bank continued to intervene in the currency market as part of its policy to limit excessive moves. Uralsib analysts estimated it bought $1-1.5 billion on Tuesday.

Optimism echoed through other Russian assets, with yields on the benchmark 2030 Eurobond falling to their lowest level in seven months.

In the stock market, Russia's second-largest lender, VTB, rose 6.3 percent on expectations that the state-controlled bank could buy back shares from minorities at a significant premium to current market prices.

Strong global metal prices supported companies like Severstal and Norilsk Nickel. (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Simon Jessop)

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