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MOSCOW, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Russia's economy will not grow again before the middle of next year, a deputy economy minister forecast on Thursday, contradicting other senior officials who have predicted growth.
Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach last week became the first Russian official to say the economy could already be entering a recession, prompting a rebuttal from Kremlin media handlers and official assurances the outlook was still buoyant.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday Klepach, did not use the word recession -- usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarterly growth -- but he forecast there would be no growth for the first two quarters of next year.
"Based on our pessimistic scenario, the fall of gross domestic product will last for three quarters. According to the base line scenario, growth will resume by the middle of the year," Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters.
He also predicted that 2009 will bring capital outflows of $90 billion and a current account deficit.
Russia, which had enjoyed economic growth of 7 percent in
recent years, has seen its fortunes turn around with the
collapse of the oil price
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has forecast that the Russian economy will stay out of recession, with 2009 gross domestic growth of 3 percent.
Klepach said the ministry's pessimistic forecast sees the economy contracting 0.5 percent in 2009, while the base case shows growth of 2.4 percent for the period.
Both forecasts are based on prices for Russia's Urals blend
of oil averaging $50 a barrel -- compared to under $40 now --
and the rouble trading around 30.80-31.80 to the dollar
Even with those assumptions, which some analysts see as optimistic, the base line scenario points to capital outflows of $90 billion and a current account deficit of $45 billion.
Russia's gold and forex reserves are seen at over $300 billion by year end, down from $435.4 as of Dec. 12, Klepach said.
Things are likely to look even worse under the $32 oil scenario, which Klepach said the ministry had also discussed. He declined to give any details.
The worsening growth backdrop, falling oil prices and shrinking reserves prompted Russia to start on the path of gradual rouble devaluation last month.
On Thursday, the central bank widened the rouble corridor for the third time this week and for the eighth time in under two months [ID:nLI445962]
Analysts at TD Securities described the latest Economy Ministry forecasts as "sobering", saying they suggest the rouble depreciation may need to be greater than previously expected.
-- For a TABLE of the forecasts see [ID:nLI755417] (Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya, writing by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Christian Lowe)