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UPDATE 1-Russia c.bank says sees more rouble flexibility

Published 11/10/2008, 11:54 AM
Updated 11/10/2008, 11:56 AM

(Adds Ignatyev quotes, details)

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank's Chairman Sergei Ignatyev said on Monday he did not rule out more flexibility in the rouble exchange rate and some rouble weakening was possible.

The rouble is under pressure from capital outflows, which Ignatyev said had reached a net of $50 billion in October. The central bank, which runs a managed float of the currency, has been defending the rouble's exchange rate since August.

"I do not rule out more flexibility in the rouble exchange rate with some tendency towards weakening of the rouble against some foreign currencies in the current conditions," Ignatyev told a televised press-conference.

Economists and rating agencies have raised questions over the sustainability of the central bank's policy of defending the rouble which resulted in a $113 billion fall in gold and forex reserves since mid-August.

"It does not make sense to support the rouble when there is no fundamental reason for it to be strong," said Stanislav Ponomarenko, an economist at ING, who expects the central bank to soften its exchange rate policy next year.

The central bank officials until recently maintained they were not planning to change technical parameters of the rouble's trading band against the basket, made of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros.

Ignatyev did not say whether the weakening was possible against the basket as well. The rouble has weakened by 16 percent against the dollar since July 15 peak, tracking the dollar's surge in the forex market. The rouble traded at the weaker end of the trading band, close to the level of 30.41 roubles to the basket seen by the market at the central bank support level. The market was closed when Ignatyev made his remarks after sluggish trade earlier.

Ignatyev also echoed comments from other Russian officials saying "the sharp devaluation of the rouble" was not in the central bank's and the government's interests.

The central bank and the government are concerned about households switching their savings into foreign currency and corporates piling up foreign exchange reserves ahead of their external debt payments.

In October, the central bank moved to cap commercial bank's foreign currency positions, threatening to cut them off from non-collateralised financing, but Ignatyev said he was against re-introduction of exchange controls.

"I am against exchange controls in their traditional form because practice shows they are not very effective. It will also be a rollback in our currency liberalisation policy," Ignatyev said. (Editing by Andy Bruce)

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