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UPDATE 1-Romania C/A deficit shrinks 82.1 pct y/y in Q1

Published 05/15/2009, 05:33 AM
Updated 05/15/2009, 05:56 AM

(Adds analyst comment, details)

BUCHAREST, May 15 (Reuters) - Romania's current account deficit fell abruptly by 82.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, raising concerns that the adjustment was too sharp for the economy and making way for further monetary easing.

Central bank data released on Friday showed the deficit fell to 709 million euros ($961 million) in the first quarter, from 3.96 billion euros in the same period of last year.

Earlier on Friday, data showed the Romanian economy shrank by 6.4 percent on the year in the first quarter of 2009, more than double economists' forecasts, as the world economic crisis battered consumption and manufacturing.

Romania has turned from an investment hot spot and a fast-rising economy into one of the EU's most vulnerable states, as its large external deficit and dependence on scarce foreign cash have exposed it to a potential financing crisis.

In March, the European Union state secured a 20 billion euro loan package, led by the International Monetary Fund, to help underpin markets and pump fresh cash into the ailing economy.

"The good news is that the deficit is adjusting. The bad news is that it is adjusting too fast," said Ionut Dumitru, head of research at Raiffeisen Bank in Bucharest. "It makes room for a faster relaxation of monetary policy in the following period."

Major Romanian exporters, such as top oil and gas firm Petrom, have said they were hit by slumping external demand which caused a double-digit drop in industrial output in the first months of this year.

The external shortfall was around 12 percent of gross domestic product last year and the central bank has said it sees it reaching single digits in 2009, close to 7 percent.

On Thursday, central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said the adjustment of Romania's external imbalance in the first months of the year exceeded expectations.

Central bankers have repeatedly said one of the bank's main concerns was the orderly adjustment of the deficit, in a way that does not add further pressure on inflation or the exchange rate.

On Friday, the leu softened after the data releases to trade at 4.1875 per euro at 0900 GMT against Thursday's 4.1658 close.

The bank said the external gap was entirely covered by foreign direct investment, which was 1.46 billion euros at the end of March, compared with 1.7 billion euros in the same period of last year. ============================================================

JAN-MARCH 09 JAN-MARCH 08 CURRENT ACCOUNT (million euros) -709 -3,955 Trade balance -1,337 -4,078 Exports (FOB) 6,561 8,143 Imports (FOB) 7,898 12,221 Services balance 57 145 Income balance -619 -1,258 Current transfers balance 1,190 1,236 ============================================================ (Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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