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UPDATE 1-POLL-S.Korea Oct export growth seen at 13-mth low

Published 10/31/2008, 05:14 AM
Updated 10/31/2008, 05:16 AM
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(Updates with revised release time)

* What: South Korea's October export/import data

* When: Monday, Nov. 3, at 6 a.m. (2100 GMT on Sunday)

* Annual export, import growth seen at 13-month low

By Cheon Jong-woo and Lee Eun-yul

SEOUL, Oct 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's annual export growth probably hit a 13-month low in October, a Reuters poll shows, indicating that a global economic slowdown has started to hit foreign demand for the country's goods.

Sales abroad from Asia's fourth-largest economy are expected to decline further in coming months as the impact of the financial turmoil is spreading to emerging markets, while developed economies are already sluggish, economists said.

"October's slowdown is just a prelude, considering the global financial crisis, faltering developed economies and a slowdown in China, our top export market," said Lee Sang-jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities.

Earlier this month, the head of the country's central bank said South Korea's export growth next year would probably fall below 10 percent, which would mark the lowest rate in at least seven years.

Exports are expected to have grown 14.4 percent in October from a year earlier, the slowest since September 2007 when overseas sales fell 1.1 percent, the Reuters poll of 11 economists showed.

That compared with a revised 28.2 percent rise in September and 18.7 percent growth in August.

Annual import growth in October is seen declining to 16.5 percent, the weakest since September 2007, from a revised 45.8 percent in September, led by lower oil prices.

That is expected to help Asia's fourth-largest economy post a trade surplus after reporting deficits for four months in a row, and to provide further support to the won , which was recently lifted by the country's currency swap deal with the United States.

South Korea is seen posting a $1.26 billion trade surplus in October, according to Reuters calculations based on the poll, the first surplus since May.

The government has forecast that South Korea will produce its first annual trade deficit this year since the 1997 Asia financial crisis as it suffered eight months of trade shortfalls.

South Korea is the first big Asian economy to report foreign trade data each month, providing clues on global merchandise demand for the rest of Asia.

Forecasts for South Korea's October exports and imports (percent change from year earlier):

Exports Imports HSBC 12.0 16.0 DBS Bank 12.0 16.9 SC First Bank 12.1 12.8 Hyundai Securities 12.2 15.2 Taurus Investment & Securities 12.5 16.5 SK Securities 14.4 15.6 Solomon Investment & Securities 15.5 15.9 Citigroup 17.6 19.1 Hana Daetoo Securities 18.4 20.8 NH Investment & Securities 18.5 20.9 Woori Investment & Securities 18.5 20.9 _____________________________________________________ Median 14.4 16.5 Low 12.0 12.8 High 18.5 20.9 September 28.2 45.8 (Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

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