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UPDATE 1-Polish unemployment up in Jan to 10.5 pct

Published 02/12/2009, 05:34 AM
Updated 02/12/2009, 05:40 AM

(Adds labour minister, analyst comment, detail)

WARSAW, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Poland's unemployment rate in January rose to 10.5 percent from 9.5 percent the month before, the labour ministry estimated in a statement on Thursday.

The unemployment rate, which at 10.5 percent would be the highest level since March 2008, traditionally rises in January as many seasonal jobs are slashed because of the winter but both the labour minister and analysts said the sharp economic slowdown was to blame for much of the increase.

"It seems that this rise (in unemployment rate) is a result not only of seasonal factors," Labour Minister Jolanta Fedak said in parliament.

Analysts said the January rise in the jobless rate was ominous for the rest of the year as it showed that the spreading global financial crisis was spilling over to central Europe's biggest economy faster than anticipated just a few months ago.

"The scale and pace of the economic slowdown shows that the reaction of the labour market may be quick," said Marcin Mroz, chief economist at Fortis Bank in Warsaw.

Economic growth in 2008 slowed to 4.8 percent from 6.7 percent in 2007 and analysts expect it to slump to 1.4 percent this year.

They also forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 12.8 percent in January 2010.

"The current rise of the number of the unemployed is bigger than in the 2001-2003 years, when the labour market was in a crisis," said Adam Antoniak, senior economist at BPH Bank in Warsaw.

During the slowdown at the beginning of the decade Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 1.2 percent in 2001 and 1.4 percent in 2002. Unemployment stood then at around 20 percent.

As the global crisis sweeps through Central and Eastern Europe, Poland's regional peers have had a rise in unemployment, with the Czech Republic recently reporting the jobless rate rose in January to 6.8 percent from 6 percent. (Reporting by Maciej Onoszko and Kuba Jaworowski, writing by Kuba Jaworowski; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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