(Writes through, adds quotes, PMI)
By Marcin Goettig and Pawel Sobczak
WARSAW, March 2 (Reuters) - Poland's economy grew by slightly more than forecast in the fourth quarter of 2008, statistics office data showed on Monday, but analysts said the slowdown was set to intensify.
Gross domestic product in the European Union's largest ex-communist economy rose by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, slightly above an analysts' forecast of 2.8 percent though well below the 4.8 percent registered in the third quarter.
Consumption, in particular, remained robust at 4.6 percent, up from 4.0 percent in the July-September period, data showed.
"The data...has not surprised... We expect that in the first quarter of 2009 the easing in the pace of economic growth will continue. This may be the weakest quarter of this year," said Maja Goettig, chief economist at BPH Bank.
"In the whole year (2009) we expect growth at 1.6 percent under our most probable scenario. It assumes a slight easing in consumption but the situation on the labour market points to risks to this forecast."
Polish GDP growth for 2008 is estimated at 4.8 percent.
The Finance Ministry said on Monday consumer price inflation probably rose by 3.4 percent last month, above the 3.1 percent reading for January, though analysts said this was a blip reflecting higher regulated prices and a weaker zloty.
"Inflation rose largely because of the weakening zloty, which caused a hike in gas prices," said Piotr Kalisz, chief economist at Bank Handlowy.
"The data seems neutral, especially the GDP data. Inflation came as a lightly negative surprise, but industrial production and wages will be key for the (central bank's) Monetary Policy Council (MPC)."
RATES ON HOLD?
A key swing member of the MPC, Jan Czekaj, told Reuters the 10-member panel might keep rates on hold at its March meeting because of the zloty's slide.
"A rate cut in March is not a done deal. (The decision) would depend on the upcoming data, mainly industrial output, inflation and the zloty exchange rate," MPC swing voter Jan Czekaj told Reuters after the GDP data.
"It's not a secret that the zloty (weakening) is loosening monetary policy," he added.
The zloty, which firmed slightly after the GDP data, has lost some 10 percent versus the euro since the start of the year on risk aversion, limiting the scope for further monetary easing even as industrial output wilts and unemployment begins to rise.
The statistics office data released on Monday showed investments rose 3.5 percent year-on-year and domestic demand was up 3.6 percent in the last quarter of 2008, while private consumption grew 5.2 percent.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Poland's manufacturing sector -- a key barometer of sentiment -- rose in February for the second month in a row and stood at 40.8 points, up from 40.3 in January, Markit Economics said on Monday.
But analysts said the improved reading probably marked a rebound from previous sharp declines and suggested the weaker zloty may have helped perceptions by making exports cheaper.
"While the data suggests some bottoming out, sentiment remains very depressed, suggesting that the Polish economy is still facing a much reduced growth environment, as is the rest of the region," said Timothy Ash of Royal Bank of Scotland. (Writing by Gareth Jones and Gabriela Baczynska)