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UPDATE 1-Polish Jan CPI may signal smaller rate cuts ahead

Published 02/13/2009, 09:25 AM
Updated 02/13/2009, 09:32 AM
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(Adds analysts' quotes, central banker, market reaction)

By Adrian Krajewski and Karolina Slowikowska

WARSAW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Polish inflation was higher than expected in January despite the sharp economic slowdown and could prompt the central bank to be more cautious with interest rate cuts as the weak zloty could pose a threat, analysts said.

Statistics office data showed on Friday consumer prices rose 3.1 percent year-on-year last month, a touch above market expectations, while analysts in a Reuters poll had expected prices to have risen 3.0 percent year-on-year, down from 3.3 percent reported in December.

In month-on-month terms, consumer prices in January rose 0.5 percent, also above analysts' expectations.

"The (inflation) slowdown continued, although not to the extent expected by the market," said Piotr Kalisz, chief economist at Citibank Handlowy.

"The data is slightly supportive for the cautious wing of the (Monetary Policy) Council. When you add in the weakening zloty, then it might be an argument for a rate cut of 25 basis points, that is less than previously seen."

The central bank has slashed rates by a total of 175 basis points since November, with the last two reductions at 75 basis points each. The central bank's key rate now stands at 4.25 percent.

Central bank's Dariusz Filar, a member of the 10-strong Monetary Policy Council, told TVN CNBC immediately after the inflation data policymakers could now use a pause in their monetary easing campaign.

But Filar represents the more hawkish wing of the council and analysts said policymakers would now focus on industrial output data, due next week, to make up their minds for the meeting on Feb. 24 and 25.

"In the near future, I would expect a further decline in consumer prices year-on-year, mostly due to supply factors and weakening demand pressure on prices," said Michal Dybula, economist at BNP Paribas.

"The Monetary Policy Council's decision may be influenced by industrial output data that will -- based on credible leading indicators -- show a further sharp fall in production."

Analysts expect the central bank to cut rates again later this month but by 50 basis points as they forecast industrial output to have contracted by 11.5 percent in January.

However, the zloty could cool the MPC's determination for further deep rate cuts as the currency shed about 30 percent against the euro since its all-time high in July, which could slow the pace of easing inflation.

Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski, representing what seems to be the last bastion of optimism, admitted earlier on Friday that growth may be below the last government forecast of 1.7 percent.

The Polish zloty and bonds were largely unchanged after the data. (Reporting by Adrian Krajewski, writing by Karolina Slowikowska; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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