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WARSAW, April 6 (Reuters) - Poland's central budget deficit may come in at the planned level of 18.2 billion zlotys, the central bank's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner was quoted as saying on Monday.
"I believe the budget can be closed with the deficit at the planned level," Wasilewska-Trenkner told daily Rzeczpospolita in an interview.
Warsaw vowed to keep the budget gap at 18.2 billion zlotys as set in this year's budget bill despite growing scepticism of some analysts as the slowing economy hits state revenues.
Poland's economy is expected to cool sharply in 2009 to about 1 percent, from 4.8 percent in 2008 and 6.7 percent in 2007. Some analysts say the economy could even contract this year as the country's biggest trade partner, the euro zone, battles recession.
The government has also said the general government deficit, according to European Union methodology and used for euro criteria requirements, would not exceed the ceiling of 3 percent of GDP. Last year, it stood at 2.7 percent.
"However, if it came to amending the budget, this would be no good news, especially if the amendment was due to higher public spending," she said.
The government said it may consider amending the budget at the turn of the first and the second half of the year if economic conditions deteriorate more than expected.
"Increasing the deficit may cause a rise in inflation and therefore reduce the likelihood of lowering rates," she added.
The MPC has slashed borrowing costs by a total of 225 basis points in five moves since November and the main interest rate is now at an all-time low level of 3.75 percent.
"The situation is very dynamic and, in my view, the next interest rate cuts may be risky," she said. "It would be good to wait."
Wasilewska-Trenkner, who has favoured higher rates in the past, also said it was advisable to hold fire on rates for a while to better judge the economy.
"There are no signs right now that would suggest a rate hike. But this should not be interpreted as a signal there will be more cuts. I don't know if we will be able to afford this (cuts)," she said.
"I can imagine a situation in which we will be raising rates in the coming months." (Writing by Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by Kim Coghill)