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UPDATE 1-Polish c.bank leaves rates unchanged as expected

Published 10/29/2008, 08:28 AM
Updated 10/29/2008, 08:30 AM
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(Adds background, market reaction, analyst quotes)

By Karolina Slowikowska

WARSAW, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations.

The key rate still stands at 6.0 percent.

All analysts polled by Reuters on Oct. 21 said the central bank's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members would hold fire because of the weakening economy and the ongoing crisis on global financial markets.

"Rates were kept unchanged mainly because policymakers do not want to intensify market turmoil with unexpected decisions," said Marcin Mroz, chief economist at Fortis Bank in Warsaw.

"Also the government's declarations about euro adoption signal that interest rates should stay unchanged."

The Polish zloty and bonds were unchanged immediately after the decision.

Several central bankers have said that euro adoption would require a more restrictive monetary policy and the government reaffirmed on Tuesday its aim to adopt the common currency in 2012, despite resistance from the main opposition party, the conservative Law and Justice.

At the same time, Poland, the largest ex-communist member of the European Union, is showing signs of waning growth as the euro area economy slows, undermining Polish exports.

Analysts have been downgrading their growth forecasts, now at 3.9 percent for 2009, down from a previous 4.4 percent. In 2007, the economy expanded by 6.7 percent and is seen growing by more than 5 percent this year.

Inflation in September stood at 4.5 percent, above the central bank's 2.5 percent target but down from 4.8 percent in August.

"The tone of the (MPC's) statement should be softer and give a clear signal that the rate tightening cycle has come to an end," Mroz said.

Most analysts expect the central bank to start easing its rate policy in the first quarter of 2009.

Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Millennium Bank in Warsaw, said policymakers would now take their time before making any move on rates.

"In the next few months I would expect the MPC to refrain from any decisions to change interest rates because the council will want to wait for the global markets situation to stabilise."

The MPC is due to hold a news conference explaining its decision and issue a statement at 1500 GMT. (Writing by Karolina Slowikowska; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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