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UPDATE 1-Norway non-oil GDP grows in Q2, exits recession

Published 08/20/2009, 05:47 AM
Updated 08/20/2009, 05:51 AM
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* Non-oil GDP grows 0.3 pct qtr/qtr vs forecast fall

* Growth led by rise in consumption, services sector

* Overall GDP shrinks 1.3 pct qtr/qtr, weaker than forecast

* Strong data boosts pressure on rate hikes, crown up

(Adds details, quotes)

By Wojciech Moskwa

OSLO, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Norway's non-oil economy unexpectedly grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter following two quarters of recession, raising pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates from record lows and lifting the crown.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected non-oil gross domestic product to shrink by 0.2 percent during the April-June period and extend a mild recession that has hit the world's No. 5 oil exporter and western Europe's biggest producer of natural gas.

Statistics Norway said a 2.0 percent rise in public consumption and a 0.6 percent rise in private consumption were behind the mainly services sector-led revival.

Overall GDP, a measure that includes the North Sea state's vast offshore oil and gas sectors, shrank by 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, more than the 0.8 percent slide predicted by analysts. [ID:nLE381610]

It was pulled down by lower investment by oil and gas industries in response to weaker energy prices.

Norway's economy remains the strongest across the Nordics, whose small, export-oriented economies have been hit hard by the global crisis, triggering talk of rate increases this year.

"The non-oil economy was stronger than expected so the recession is over -- growth has returned after a couple of quarters of decline," said Erik Bruce, chief analyst at Nordea Markets in Oslo, who expects a rate rise in October.

A number of countries -- notably France and Germany -- exited recession in the second quarter, earlier than many economists expected.

SMALLER DOWNTURN

Stein Bruun, chief economist at SEB Norway said the figures "add weight to Norges Bank's assessment ... about signs that the drop in demand and employment was somewhat smaller than expected", adding that he expected a rate rise in December.

During the downturn Norway has been sustained by its oil and gas sector, stimulus measures by its deep-pocketed government and a series of central bank rate cuts which have pushed the main deposit rate to a record low of 1.25 percent.

The central bank said last week that interest rate increases could take place earlier than during the second quarter of 2010 as inflation remains benign and the economy is stabilising.

In year-on-year terms, non-oil GDP shrank by an unadjusted 5.0 percent, against a 1.1 percent rise in the first quarter. Overall GDP was down by 4.8 percent, Statistics Norway said.

But including seasonal adjustments, such as the smaller number of working days due to the long Easter holiday moving to April this year from March in 2008, annualised non-oil GDP was down only about 1.9 percent, according to First Securities.

"This confirms suspicions the central bank expressed earlier and shows that the Norwegian economy is in a somewhat better shape than earlier thought," Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist at First Securities, said.

Sweden's GDP surprised on the upside by falling 6.2 percent in the second quarter [ID:nLV331899], while Finnish GDP shrank by 11.1 percent year-on-year in June. Danish second quarter GDP is due out next month.

The Norwegian crown firmed to 8.5870 against the euro by 0903 GMT from around 8.6133 before the data. (With reporting by Richard Solem, Alister Doyle, Terje Solsvik, Ole Petter Skonnord, Joergen Frich and Joachim Dagenborg, editing by Mike Peacock)

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