* Raises full-year 2010 profit guidance to around $5 bln
* 9-mth net profit 23.8 bln DKK, above 21.4 bln avg fcast
* CEO says most of improvement is from cost cuts
* Shipping mkt growth slowed in Q3, to slow further in Q4
* Shares rise 0.7 percent
(Adds details, CEO, analyst, updates shares)
By John Acher and Peter Levring
COPENHAGEN, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Shipping and oil group A.P. Moller-Maersk hiked its 2010 profit forecast to around $5 billion as it posted forecast-beating profits for nine months, driven by cost cuts and higher freight rates and oil prices.
The upgrade from the previous guidance for a full-year net result exceeding $4 billion stemmed mainly from higher rates for container shipping and efficiency improvements, the group said.
Maersk's report followed strong third-quarter results from Asian rivals such as China COSCO and Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) , pointing to a sustained recovery from a dismal 2009 for shipping as global trade regains momentum.
Net profit at the group, which owns the world's biggest container shipping company Maersk Line, totalled 23.8 billion Danish crowns ($4.4 billion) in January-September against losses of 3.9 billion in the same period last year.
The result beat an average expectation of a profit of 21.4 billion crowns in a Reuters poll of analysts whose estimates ranged from 19.9 billion to 22.9 billion.
Shares in Maersk seesawed in early trade to trade up 0.69 percent by 1100 GMT, outperforming a 0.24 percent lower Copenhagen bourse.
Cheuvreux analyst Joakim Ahlberg called the third-quarter results "very solid" and said he would make minor increases to earnings estimates on the back of the report.
Average freight rates, including bunker surcharges, were up 34 percent in the nine months to end-September from the same period last year, and volumes 7 percent higher, Maersk said. Chief Executive Nils Smedegaard Andersen said in a conference call that the improved competitiveness through cost savings was "a very big factor" driving the results.
"More than half of the improvement in our results compared to last year came from the cost side," Andersen said, adding that rates remain below 2008 levels.
He said Maersk had reached its 2010 target of at least $500 million in benefits from savings and streamlining and he estimated the full-year effect at up to $1 billion.
"We will continue our focus on cost reductions ...The whole organisation is becoming much more cost-focused than it was a few years ago," Andersen said.
The group expects a seasonal decline in volumes and freight rates for the container activities towards the end of the year and consequently a somewhat lower result in the fourth quarter than in the previous quarters, Maersk said.
Andersen said in a video on the group's website he sees the container shipping market growing 6 percent next year and the company is ready to expand.
He declined in a telephone interview with Reuters to forecast freight rates going forward, but said cost cuts would help Maersk Line perform well relative to peers even if rates fell.
EMERGING MARKET DEMAND
The group, which is sometimes seen as a barometer of world trade, said the container shipping market continued to show positive development, though growth in the third quarter was lower than in the preceding quarters.
"Private consumption shows relatively weak growth in the United States and Europe, and the positive seasonal fluctuation in the third quarter of 2010 was smaller than expected," said Maersk whose container shipping fleet numbers 560 vessels.
Global growth is being driven by increased demand in emerging markets and imports of goods and components from low-cost countries to Europe and North America, Maersk said.
Higher oil prices helped the conglomerate's oil and gas business, its second major leg, deliver operating results in line with analysts' estimates though production declined by 17 percent mainly due to lower share from its Qatar field.
Andersen said that some parts of the reservoir of the Al Shaheen field in Qatar had been disappointing, with the flow lower than expected, but he said he did not expect any change in the resource in place.
Maersk's tanker business lost money in the first nine months of the year with rates under pressure.
"The tanker market this year has been very poor, and we do not see anything that makes us very optimistic in the short term," Andersen said. ($1=5.407 Danish Crown) ( Editing by Jon Loades-Carter and Hans Peters)