🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 1-Japan business mood recovery stalls-Reuters Tankan

Published 08/13/2009, 08:11 PM
Updated 08/13/2009, 08:15 PM

(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click)

* Service-sector sentiment flat on weak consumption

* Manufacturers, non-manufacturers see confidence improving

(Adds analyst quotes in paras 6-7)

By Izumi Nakagawa and Rie Ishiguro

TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers were slightly less pessimistic in August but the pace of recovery slowed, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting that the effect of huge government stimulus spending is wearing off.

Service-sector sentiment was flat as weak wages and rising unemployment hurt private consumption, which makes up about 60 percent of the economy.

But both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect conditions to improve in the next three months, reflecting their belief that Japan has put the worst of the global crisis behind it, the Reuters Tankan showed on Friday.

Japan's economy is expected to have grown 1.0 percent in April-June after four straight quarters of contraction due to a pick-up in exports and personal consumption spurred by stimulus spending at home and abroad, another Reuters poll showed.

But economists warn that any recovery will be fragile because doubts about the sustainability of end demand remain with recent output gains driven mostly by government stimulus. GDP figures are due on Monday.

"The Reuters Tankan result indicates that Japan will see only a slow economic recovery," said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance.

"Japan's personal consumption is believed to have turned up in April-June, but the recovery is likely to prove only temporary. Unless personal consumption grows, business confidence will not recover fully."

A transport equipment maker surveyed for the Tankan said it was "hard to forecast when demand from businesses will recover because corporate capital spending remains weak."

The manufacturers' sentiment index rose one point to minus 42 in August, improving for the fifth straight month from a record low of minus 78 in March, thanks to a pick-up in exports and industrial output. For a table, click.

The manufacturer confidence figure in the Reuters Tankan has around a 95 percent correlation with the Bank of Japan's influential quarterly tankan survey. For a graphic tracking the two surveys, click:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/089/JP_RTKN0809.jpg

The Reuters Tankan is calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones. A negative figure means a majority of those surveyed are pessimistic.

AUTOS STILL BLUE

The small rise in August reflected caution among carmakers and transport equipment manufacturers about slow sales and sluggish corporate spending.

Automakers grew more pessimistic despite pent-up demand for low-emission cars, thanks to subsidies included in $600 billion government stimulus spending.

Despite the boost, some complained of weak sales and severe competition.

Sentiment among non-manufacturers was unchanged at minus 38, not far from the record low of minus 44 hit in May, although they see conditions improving over the next three months.

Among service-sector firms, confidence worsened at retailers and among real estate and construction firms.

"A deterioration in consumer attitude has become conspicuous since the summer bonus payments in June," a retail firm said.

Japanese wages marked a record annual drop and the jobless rate hit a six-year high in June, as smaller summer bonuses curbed consumer spending.

"Consumers are putting off home purchases because they are worried about job losses and falling incomes," a construction firm said.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.