* Thai c.bank says premature rate rise will kill recovery
* Needs to be sure economic recovery is sustainable
* That will require 2 or 3 quarters of quarterly growth
* Annual contraction seen moderating in Q3, GDP to grow in Q4
* Thai baht still competitive, c.bank to act on volatility (Adds details, quotes)
By Orathai Sriring and Vithoon Amorn
BANGKOK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of Thailand will not raise interest rates until it is sure the economic recovery is sustainable, a deputy governor said on Thursday, adding that recent upbeat data was mainly the result of government spending.
"When we want to change our stance, we need to be sure that the Thai economy has recovered and demand-pull inflationary pressure poses a risk," Atchana Waiquamdee told Reuters in an interview.
"Recovery should mean a clear momentum of sustained quarterly growth for at least two consecutive, or two or three, quarters. There should also be annual GDP growth at the same time," she said. "Making premature policy change decisions will kill the recovery."
The economy pulled out of a recession -- two straight quarters of contraction -- in the second quarter of 2009. So Atchana's comments imply Thai rates would not rise until 2010, assuming the economy continues to recover.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to leave rates unchanged until the middle of next year.
The BOT kept its rates steady at a record 1.25 percent for a third straight meeting last week following cuts totalling 2.50 percentage points between December and April to help pull the economy out of its worst recession in 11 years.
"I cannot say in advance when our new tightening cycle will start," Atchana said. "But forecasting six or 12 months in advance is nonsense. How could you predict what medicine your doctor will prescribe six or 12 months from now?"
A pick up in quarterly growth in the second quarter [ID:nBKK378885] was mainly due to government spending, she said. Other economic components were still negative.
"Slight improvements in data should not be hastily interpreted as showing the economy is out of the woods," Atchana said. "Politics remains a major uncertain factor even though things now may look quiet on the surface."
Supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, have stepped up their protests in recent months, unsettling investors. [ID:nBKK507010].
RATE CUT WON'T HELP
Atchana said the annual economic contraction was likely to moderate in the third quarter and GDP should rise slightly in the final quarter of 2009 compared with a year before.
The BOT has forecast the economy would shrink 3.0-4.5 percent this year, which would be the weakest performance since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. It sees 2010 growth of 3.0-5.0 percent.
However, Atchana played down the prospect of further rate cuts, saying they were already low and more cuts might not help.
"The rate at 1.25 percent is appropriate ... If we cut it by another 25 or 50 basis points, will it help spending? I think not, at a time when the economy is bad," she said.
Still, the BOT could cut again if the economy worsened.
"We have to reserve some bullets for the unforeseen," she said.
The central bank targets core inflation and has just agreed a new, slightly narrower target of 0.5 to 3.0 percent with the government. Atchana said the change from a range of zero to 3.5 percent had no implications for monetary policy.
Core CPI, which exclude fresh food and energy, were 0.2 percent lower in August than a year before, but she said there would be inflation of 0.5 percent if government relief measures, such as subsidies on utilities and transport, were lifted.
"The new target range does not reflect any policy change. Both the new and the old ranges have the same median point at 1.75 percent," she said.
"It is intended as a clearer policy for helping markets anchor inflation expectations, making it easier for businesses and companies to project future inflation," Atchana said.
The BOT forecasts the annual change in core prices this year will range from a fall of 0.5 percent to a rise of 0.5 percent. For 2010 it forecasts a rise of 1.0 to 2.5 percent.
Atchana said the baht
"Our duty is to ensure the baht is not too volatile and moves in line with regional peers, but we never set any target for it."
The baht traded at 34.04/06 per dollar at 0717 GMT. It has risen about 2.3 percent this year. ($1=34.0 Baht) (Editing by Alan Raybould)