(Adds cbank and analyst quotes, details)
* RBI begins first phase of exit from easy policy
* Withdraws some liquidity measures, holds key rates
* Raises inflation projection, holds growth projection
* Analysts say RBI moves signal rate rises coming
By Surojit Gupta and John Mair
MUMBAI, Oct 27 (Reuters) - India's central bank on Tuesday began its exit from expansionary monetary policy by ending liquidity support measures taken to insulate the country from the global financial crisis, but left key policy rates unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2010 at 6 percent with an upward bias, but raised its end-March projection of wholesale price index (WPI) inflation to 6.5 percent, with an upward bias, from a previous forecast of 5 percent.
Analysts said the RBI was laying the groundwork to raise interest rates.
The benchmark 10-year government bond
"The balance of judgement at the current juncture is that it may be appropriate to sequence the exit in a calibrated way so that while the recovery process is not hampered, inflation expectations remain anchored," the central bank said in its quarterly review.
"The 'exit' process can begin with closure of some special liquidity support measures," it said.
Effective immediately, the RBI ended a special repurchase facility for banks and another for the funding needs of non-bank financial companies, mutual funds and housing finance companies.
It also ended a forex swap facility for banks, and cut an export credit refinance facility to a pre-crisis level of 15 percent from 50 percent with immediate effect.
It raised the statutory liquidity ratio of commercial banks to 25 percent from 24 percent effective Nov. 7, and said the collateralised borrowing and lending obligation liabilities of banks would be subject to cash reserve ratio requirements from Nov. 21.
RATES ON HOLD, FOR NOW
As expected, the RBI left the repo rate
"I think the central bank, in terms of cues, has probably already set its mind on hiking rates because inflation forecast has been revised upwards," said Ramya Suryanarayanan, an economist at DBS Bank in Singapore.
"That put together with a SLR hike means that the central bank is already looking at rate hikes."
For a graphic on Indian GDP, inflation and interest rates, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/IN_GDPINF1009.gif
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the central bank to keep key rates unchanged in its quarterly review to push growth in Asia's third-largest economy, and many expect the RBI to begin raising rates in early 2010.
The RBI cut its short-term lending rate by 4.25 percentage points in six steps between October and April. The reverse repo rate, at which the central bank absorbs surplus cash, has been cut by 2.75 percentage points in four steps since December.
In the review, the RBI said bank credit remained sluggish and cut its forecast for adjusted non-food credit growth in 2009/10 to 18 percent from 20 percent.
"Banks are urged once again to step up their efforts towards credit expansion while preserving credit quality which is critical for revival of growth," it said.
India's economic growth slowed to 6.7 percent in the year through March after three years of growth at 9 percent or more. Government officials forecast the economy to grow at about 6.5 percent this fiscal year.
While inflation remains benign, it is expected to surge in coming months on high food prices and as the base effect from last year's high energy and commodity prices eases.
A government panel last week forecast inflation to reach about 6 percent by the end of the fiscal year, although some economists have said that figure could rise to about 8 percent.
While the RBI's comfort level for inflation is seen at about 5 percent, the central bank has been under pressure from the government to keep monetary policy loose to foster growth.
Raising rates would also make it more expensive for India to finance a fiscal deficit running at 6.8 percent of GDP, which is being funded by a record borrowing programme.
For more India monetary policy coverage, click http://in.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/policyreview (Editing by Tony Munroe)