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UPDATE 1-Hungary to see growth in H2 2010, deficit on track-PM

Published 12/01/2009, 11:19 AM
Updated 12/01/2009, 11:21 AM

* Q/Q GDP growth may come "much earlier" as exports pick up

* 2010 budget has enough reserves to prevent overshoot

* Recent forint ranges "comfortable" for economy

(Adds more detail, background)

By Krisztina Than and Marton Dunai

BUDAPEST, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Hungary's economy will post annual growth again from mid-2010 helped by tax cuts and a revival of export markets but the crisis is not over until unemployment starts to ease, Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai said.

One day after parliament approved the 2010 budget, a key condition of the country's financing deal with international lenders, Bajnai told Reuters the deficit target of 3.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) was ambitious but achievable, barring major unexpected negative changes in global conditions.

"I consider this to be a stamp, a sort of guarantee on our programme ... and a clear sign of our commitment to keep Hungary on that newly found route of fiscal prudence," Bajnai said in an interview.

"Hungary deserves a lot of appreciation for taking these painful (spending cuts) measures very calmly, in a very disciplined way. You have not seen any major demonstrations or national strikes," he added.

He said the budget had reserves worth around 0.8 percent of GDP which should be sufficient to offset any foreseeable risks of overshooting in the deficit.

The central bank and some analysts have warned the deficit could exceed the target while the main opposition party Fidesz said the government has skeletons in the closet which could boost the gap above 7 percent after elections due next year.

Bajnai, whose cabinet took office in April after the previous Socialist government collapsed, said Hungary's economy could post quarter on quarter growth well before the middle of next year if a recovery picks up in key European export markets.

The country is going through its deepest recession in almost two decades, with the economy expected to contract by 6.7 percent this year.

Bajnai said the fiscal adjustment, value added tax hike and wage cuts have deepened the recession this year by cutting domestic demand, but due to a reduction in employment related taxes, mainly income tax and social security contributions, Hungary is becoming more competitive for investment again.

Hungary's economy contracted by as much as 7.2 percent in annual terms in the third quarter while its bigger regional peer Poland posted 1.7 percent growth.

FORINT STABILITY KEY

Bajnai, who will not run for Prime Minister in next year's elections, said Hungary still had major tasks to do, primarily bringing down its public debt which is expected to peak at around 80 percent of GDP next year.

To put debt back on a declining path, Hungary's next government should stick to prudent fiscal policies and carry out reforms to adopt the euro as soon as possible, Bajnai said.

"If you want to introduce the euro ASAP, we need to do a host of significant strategic structural reforms in the Hungarian economy," he said.

"Hungary could set an ERM-2 and then euro target date even in the first half of next year if there were consensus on the future economic policy among the major governing parties in the country," he added.

A lack of such agreement has so far prevented Hungary from passing key measures, such as streamlining its bloated local government sector or reforming health care, and the political divide has only deepened in the past few years.

Mihaly Varga, a top economic adviser in Fidesz, told Reuters last week a next Fidesz government would aim to set a credible euro target date by the end of next year as financial markets needed an anchor.

Bajnai added the forint's recent firming and stabilisation versus the euro from all time lows near 317 in March was very positive for the economy.

"I think the current level allows relatively relaxed repayment of retail loans by those who hold them while it is a range where I think most exporters feel reasonably comfortable."

When asked what he would do after his government's mandate ends in the first half of next year, Bajnai said:

"I will deal with managing the crisis in my family. They haven't seen me for a long time and I will have to be prudent with those deficits that I have amassed towards my children." (Reporting by Krisztina Than and Marton Dunai; editing by Stephen Nisbet/Ron Askew) ((krisztina.than@reuters.com; tel +36 1 327 47 45; rme krisztina.than@reuters.com.net))

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