(Adds detail, more comments, forint)
By Krisztina Than and Balazs Koranyi
BUDAPEST, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany unveiled tax and budget measures on Monday to counter the impact of a global economic crisis which has pushed the country into a deep recession.
Gyurcsany, who leads a minority Socialist administration, told Reuters that the government planned to raise the main value-added tax rate to 23 percent from 20 percent in July.
This was aimed at raising revenue to allow a cut in taxes on jobs to boost the economy, which slid into recession late last year, he said in an interview released shortly before he announced the package to parliament.
Hungary, which relies heavily on foreign investors to finance its large debts, had to resort to a $25.1 billion rescue package from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union last October to avoid financial meltdown.
Monday's measures, which also include changes in the social and pension system to make them sustainable in the long term, could allow Hungary to aim to adopt the euro between 2012 and 2014, Gyurcsany said.
Gyurcsany, whose party's popularity has slumped since 2006 when it raised taxes to rein in the budget deficit after years of overspending, said the economy could shrink even more than three percent this year.
"We also reckon with the possibility that the drop in household consumption and a rise in their savings ... will reduce domestic demand and this ... could bring a bigger contraction than three percent," he said.
"In both cases, even if the economy contracts by 3.5 percent, the budget deficit can be kept below 3 percent (of GDP) ... Today various budget scenarios reckon with a 2.7-2.9 percent deficit," he added.
Hungary's economy had been a laggard in central and eastern Europe due to failed state reforms even before the global crisis began. In a Reuters poll last week analysts' median forecast was for a 3.2 percent contraction in the economy for 2009 but there are some analysts who predict it could shrink around 5 percent.
The tax measures would lift annual average inflation to around 3.9 percent this year, above the central bank's last forecast of 3.1-3.4 percent, but the uptick would be only short-term, Gyurcsany said.
Hungary's export-led economy has been one of the hardest-hit by a collapse of demand in the euro zone, its main market. The key interest rate is at 9.5 percent, one of the highest in the EU due to its external vulnerability.
The forint dropped to new all-time lows of around 304.75 versus the euro on Monday.
"The cut in the taxes on labour goes into the right direction," said Gergely Suppan, an economist at Takarekbank in Budapest. "The impact this year will not be big; perhaps it can dampen the recession slightly."
EURO SEEN IN 2012-14
Analysts have warned that unless the government launches structural reforms to make public finances sustainable in the long term, Hungary could face financing difficulties once the IMF-led package runs out next year.
Gyurcsany's government will have to push through the planned tax and social changes in parliament, relying on support from the two small opposition parties.
"We expect and reckon with a stable majority for this programme," the prime minister said, adding that he counted on votes from the Free Democrats and MDF.
Hungary has no official euro target date, while neighbouring Slovakia introduced the euro on Jan. 1.
But Gyurcsany said the government would make a proposal by Sept. 30 for a medium-term economic path, as part of a national agreement if possible, which would allow the introduction of the euro in the next three to four years.
"First we have to outline a path, and then set a date, rather than the other way around," he said. "The present measures and the resulting track will allow us to set a realistic, but credible and reliable (euro) target date."
"Today I think it cannot be earlier than in 2012, and there is no reason for it to be later than in 2014," he said.
Analysts now see Hungary adopting the euro in 2013.
(Reporting by Krisztina Than and Balazs Koranyi; editing by David Stamp)