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WARSAW, June 4 (Reuters) - Global trade may contract by more than 6 percent in 2009 but could return to positive growth next year, World Bank chief economist Justin Lin said on Thursday.
However, recent rises in world stock markets may point to the start of a global economic recovery, Lin told Reuters during a visit to Poland.
"A global trade contraction could be larger than the 6 percent that we had earlier expected," Lin said in an interview.
In March, World Bank president Robert Zoellick said world trade volume was expected to fall by six percent this year, the largest decline in 80 years. The World Trade Organisation has said the contraction in 2009 could reach 9 percent.
Asked if global trade might return to positive territory in 2010, Lin said: "Yes, there are encouraging signs, although there are still dangers and uncertainties."
"Equity markets in the past tended to generally recover about 6 to 9 months before the real economy. This could be the case now. There are concerns... but the world could recover still this year," he added. (Reporting by Karolina Slowikowska and Marcin Goclowski, writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Ron Askew)