* End of scrapping subsidies set to undermine sales
* VDA auto industry association sees drop of up to a quarter
* Subsidies balloon sales volume in 2009
* New car registrations rise 20 percent in November
(Combines stories, adds background)
FRANKFURT, Dec 2 (Reuters) - New car sales in Germany, Europe's largest economy, could drop by a quarter next year now that government subsidies to scrap old autos and buy new ones have run out, the VDA auto industry association forecast.
New car registrations in Germany will plunge to between 2.75 million and 3.0 million vehicles in 2010 from the 3.8 million expected this year thanks to the government scrapping scheme and versus 3.1 million in 2008, the VDA said on Wednesday.
That means the 2010 western European car market will not match the volume of 13.4 million vehicles expected for 2009, it added, pinning its hopes on emerging markets, primarily China.
"The domestic car market is going to be tough in 2010. Trees do not grow to the sky," VDA President Matthias Wissmann told a news conference, although he said low inventories would help cushion the blow for carmakers.
New car registrations in Germany rose 20 percent in November to nearly 280,000 units, bringing the total for the first 11 months of the year to almost 3.6 million, a gain of 25 percent.
Like other European countries and the United States, Germany had offered motorists incentives to buy new cars as a way to counter swooning demand amid the sharp economic slump.
The 5 billion euro ($7.54 billion) German scheme to scrap cars at least nine years old ran out of money on Sept. 2 but continues to have an impact on car registrations as cars that were ordered under the scheme get delivered. ($1=.6635 Euro) (Reporting by Angelika Gruber; Writing by Michael Shields; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter) ((christiaan.hetzner@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: christiaan.hetzner.reuters.com@reuters.net; +49 69 7565 1249))