🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 1-German institutes raise pressure on ECB to cut rates

Published 04/23/2009, 06:44 AM
Updated 04/23/2009, 07:08 AM

(Recasts with news conference quotes)

By Paul Carrel

BERLIN, April 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should cut its interest rates to 0.5 percent and may need to adopt a policy of quantitative easing to support the euro area economy, leading German economic think tanks said on Thursday.

In a twice-yearly report, the institutes also forecast the German economy -- Europe's largest -- would contract by 6 percent this year and expected a "painful" time ahead.

The German economy has not yet shrunk by more than 1 percent in any year since World War Two.

Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck shared the institutes' gloom, saying on Wednesday it was "not unlikely" the economy could shrink by 5 percent or more this year.

"Given the depth of the economic slump and low inflation in the euro area, the European Central Bank should lower its main interest rate to 0.5 percent," said Kai Carstensen of the Ifo economic institute, presenting the report at a news conference.

"However, even an interest rate of zero would be an insufficient reaction to the crisis," he added.

The institutes forecast consumer prices in the 16-nation euro area would decline by 0.2 percent on average in 2010 and by 0.1 percent this year.

Carstensen said the ECB should extend the maturities on its tender operations, adding: "If a lasting decline in the credit volume or monetary aggregate in the euro area cannot otherwise be prevented, the ECB should shift to a policy of quantitative easing -- buying company and/or government bonds."

The ECB, unlike other major central banks, is not buying up assets, but has said it is keeping its options open.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has also called for quantitative easing from the ECB.

"PAINFUL" OUTLOOK

The German economy had suffered the worst of a major shock, Carstensen said, adding: "The earthquake in output is behind us. Now come the aftershocks, the resulting damage and the clean up -- above all on the labour market."

"This will take a long time and will be painful," he said.

Germany's jobless rate would rise to an average 10.8 percent next year from 8.6 percent in 2009, the institutes forecast.

The impact of the downturn on the labour market has been offset so far by firms making use of a "short hours" facility to cut their working hours instead of laying off workers.

The Labour Office pays half the social security contributions for workers on short time work to encourage firms to avoid lay-offs. Since October, firms have applied for short-time for 2.15 million employees.

The facility lasts 18 months, though the government is considering extending it. Carstensen said the job market faced real problems when the impact of the measure fades.

To combat the recession, Germany has launched two stimulus packages it says are worth 81 billion euros ($105.5 billion).

"Against the backdrop of the expected increase in the budget deficit, (calls for) a further economic stimulus package should be rejected under the current circumstances," Carstensen said.

The institutes forecast Germany's budget deficit would swell to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2010 from 3.7 percent this year -- far surpassing the European Union's limit of 3 percent of GDP.

They also forecast German exports, long a mainstay of the economy, would fall 22.6 percent this year before returning to growth in 2010 with a 2.4 percent increase. (Editing by Andy Bruce)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.