UPDATE 2-German business morale dips, Japan worries weigh

Published 03/25/2011, 08:04 AM

* Business morale falls, ending 9 months of gains

* Euro climbs after data shows dip less than expected

* Broad picture of continuing strong economic recovery

By Brian Rohan

BERLIN, March 25 (Reuters) - German business confidence eased only slightly in March, although the prospect of higher interest rates and concern over the impact of Japan's earthquake has given firms pause for thought, a survey showed on Friday.

The closely-watched report by Munich's Ifo think tank on Friday showed its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, inched down to 111.1, compared with a forecast in a Reuters poll for a drop to 110.5.

The euro ticked up in response as investors read the survey as showing Germany's economic upturn was continuing unabated, adding to the case for a first rise in euro zone interest rates that may come as early as next month.

Ifo said the survey's results were dented by its forward-looking expectations component and the fact that half of the survey's responses came in after the disaster at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant began to unfold.

Analysts said there may be some worries about orders to and from Japan in the near-term, although sales there are only a tiny proportion of German exports and the concern was likely chiefly about the broad impact on the global economy.

Ifo's expectations index fell to 106.5 from 107.9 in February.

"The relatively slight fall is noticeably linked to Japan and other uncertainty factors such as the situation in North Africa or the Middle East," Ifo economist Klaus Abberger said.

"Japan will not have a lasting effect on the world economy. Some companies have been affected and some supply chains have broken down. But the global economy will not take an entirely different course because of it." ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Graphic on Ifo vs GDP growth: http://r.reuters.com/nec78r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

RATE RISE

Germany has recovered faster than expected from a recession in 2009 that was its deepest since World War Two, and by the fourth quarter of last year its economy was growing by 4 percent year-on-year.

That growth is at the heart of the case for a rise in European Central Bank rates which would come at a time when other euro zone member economies are struggling with a sovereign debt crisis and slashing public spending in response.

The prospect of a rise in the cost of companies' borrowing fed into the slight worsening of sentiment, but Ifo economist Klaus Abberger said German companies are well-placed to cope with both higher rates and a higher oil price.

"The shocks in Japan, North Africa/Mideast and the euro crisis -- have been largely psychological," said Citigroup economist Juergen Michels. "The real effects on the German economy appear to be limited so far."

Other data showed that lending to consumers and companies in the euro zone picked up speed in February, with business borrowing up 16 billion euros on the month.

Germany's trade figures for January registered a slight hiccup in exports but they also showed appetite for goods from abroad grew more than expected, suggesting strong domestic demand.

Domestic demand also fuelled a stronger-than-expected rise in German industrial orders in January, and output bounced back from a plunge caused by icy winter weather late last year.

"Today's Ifo marginal drop is no reason to get petrified," said ING's Carsten Brzeski. "The economy is slipping on oil but is not tumbling. The fundamentals of the German economy are strong enough to withstand some setbacks." (Additional reporting by Stephen Brown and Erik Kirschbaum; editing by Patrick Graham)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.