* Euro zone inflation up as expected on fuel costs
* Core inflation stable, points to low inflation pressures
* Euro zone records trade surplus in Nov, but exports weak
By Jan Strupczewski
BRUSSELS, Jan 15 (Reuters) - More expensive fuel drove euro zone consumer prices higher in December as expected but core inflation stayed flat, indicating that any headline price rises will be subdued over the coming months.
Separate trade figures showing a fall in exports and an insipid performance from imports in November cast doubt on the strength of the currency bloc's recovery from recession.
The European Union's statistics office on Friday confirmed its earlier estimate that consumer prices in the 16 countries using the euro rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in December after a 0.5 percent gain in November. [ID:nBRQ009668]
For a graph of inflation see:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/0110/EZ_CPIHC0110.gif
Fuels for transport were responsible for almost half of that
annual rise, Eurostat said. Crude oil prices
"Euro zone consumer price inflation will climb further in the early months of 2010 as unfavourable base effects continue to impact. However, this is highly unlikely to mark the start of a significant building up of inflationary pressures," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month, Eurostat said, and here fuel prices had a downward impact, along with cheaper clothes, lower rents and less expensive phone calls.
Without volatile energy and unprocessed food costs, in what the European Central Bank calls core inflation, prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month for a 1.0 percent year-on-year gain, unchanged from November and October.
A broader core inflation measure, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, was 0.5 percent on the month and 1.1 percent annually, up from 1.0 percent in November.
"Nevertheless, core inflation is clearly on a downward trend and it should resume easing over the coming months," said Clemente de Lucia, economistat BNP Paribas.
Economists have said core inflation would come under downward pressure from large excess capacity in the economy and weak demand as well as growing unemployment, which will limit wage growth.
"Inflationary pressures are very mild. The increase in headline inflation will be limited by downward pressures on core inflation. In both 2010 and 2011, headline inflation is forecast to hold well below the ECB's target," de Lucia said.
The ECB aims to keep headline inflation just below 2 percent over the medium term. The bank left its main interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1 percent on Thursday.
DOUBT OVER EXPORTS STRENGTH
Separately, Eurostat said the euro zone had an unadjusted 4.8 billion euro ($6.9 billion) trade surplus in November. [ID:nBRLFCE61O] Exports fell 6 percent year-on-year while imports dropped 15 percent.
Adjusted for seasonal swings, the euro zone's exports fell 0.4 percent in November against October while imports rose 0.3 percent, producing a trade surplus of 3.9 billion euros against 4.7 billion the month before.
"The November trade data reinforce concerns that the euro zone is having trouble developing recovery after exiting recession in the third quarter of 2009. This supports the case for the ECB to hold off from raising interest rates for some considerable time to come," Archer said. (Editing by Mike Peacock)