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UPDATE 1-French industry output falls as car sector suffers

Published 11/10/2008, 04:39 AM
Updated 11/10/2008, 04:42 AM
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(Adds background, detail, analyst comment)

By James Mackenzie

PARIS, Nov 10 (Reuters) - French industrial production fell in September, weighed down by a sharp drop in car manufacturing, according to data on Monday which reinforced expectations that France is heading into recession.

Industrial output shrank 0.5 percent month-on-month in September following an unrevised 0.4 percent fall in August, national statistics office INSEE said.

The drop was slightly less than a 0.6 percent fall forecast by economists polled by Reuters. However, it added to expectations that gross domestic product figures on Friday will show the euro zone's second largest economy contracted in the third quarter as well as in the second, meaning the nation is in recession.

"All of this data is consistent with an economy in recession in the way we imagine it," said Alexander Law, chief economist at Paris-based consultancy Xerfi.

"Total output of the economy, that is GDP growth, is going to be negative in the third quarter and it looks very much like we're heading that way also for the fourth quarter," he said.

Economy Minister Christine Lagarde last week cut official forecasts for growth next year to between 0.2-0.5 percent.

Manufacturing industry, which excludes energy and agricultural production, posted a 0.8 percent fall in output in September, Monday's data showed. The sharpest drop was in the automobile sector, which reported a 3.1 percent decline in production.

Like their counterparts worldwide, French carmakers have been hit by sharp falling demand, with little sign of improvement.

The country's two main automobile groups, Renault and Peugeot, have both been forced to shut plants temporarily and stand workers down, pointing to even sharper production declines in the next few months.

Monday's industrial output data followed dire figures last week when France posted its biggest trade deficit on record in September as the economies of its major trading partners began to suffer in the global slowdown.

Output of semi-finished goods also fell 1.5 percent in September, notably in metals, chemical and plastics products. Energy output was down 0.7 percent.

Last month's decision by ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, to close half its furnaces in France temporarily because of weaker demand, suggests that the trend will continue.

By contrast, consumer goods output was up 0.4 percent, capital equipment 0.7 percent, and food and agriculture 2.0 percent.

Despite some volatility, the figures showed an overall slide in output over recent months, with production over the past three months down 0.7 percent from the preceding quarter and down 2.1 percent from the same three months a year earlier. (Additional reporting by Tamora Vidaillet and Veronique Tison; editing by David Stamp)

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