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UPDATE 1-Fitch raises Russia outlook on oil, econ recovery

Published 01/22/2010, 05:11 AM
Updated 01/22/2010, 05:15 AM

* Outlook raised to stable

* Cites oil prices, easing inflation, smaller budget deficit

* Risks remain with oil prices, fiscal tightening

* Analysts say the decision is no surprise

(Adds details, analyst, background)

MOSCOW, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Fitch on Friday raised Russia's sovereign credit outlook to "stable" from "negative", becoming the second ratings agency to do so in a month as higher oil prices brighten the prospects for economic recovery.

"The revision of Russia's Outlook to Stable reflects our greater confidence in economic and financial stability in Russia," Edward Parker, Head of Emerging Europe in Fitch's Sovereigns team was quoted as saying in a statement.

"The rebound in oil prices, recovery in net private sector capital inflows and economic activity, decline in inflation, reduction in downside risks in the banking sector and a lower than expected 2009 budget deficit outturn underpins our decision."

The price of Russia's key export oil has more than doubled from its 2008 lows, boosting budget revenues and smoothing the economy's exit from its first recession in a decade.

Russian markets showed little reaction to the news, with analysts saying Fitch's move is not a surprise.

"Fitch just states the fact. I do not think that this change is a surprise and will cause a market reaction. The market is ahead of rating agencies with the constructive view on the country's economy," Stanislav Ponomarenko, analyst at ING said.

Standard & Poor's made a similar ratings outlook revision last month and data this week showed the 2009 budget deficit at 5.9 percent of gross domestic product against an originally expected 8.3 percent.

"The decision is in line with expectations as the budget deficit for 2009 was less than the government had forecast. The expectations for this year tend to be favourable too..." Yaroslav Lissovolik, analyst at Deutsche Bank said.

Fitch -- which rates Russia's long-term foreign and local currency debt 'BBB' -- forecast the economy will grow around 4.5 percent this year while inflation eases to 7.5 percent.

"Nonetheless, there are risks related to GDP growth, the implementation of fiscal tightening and oil prices," the ratings agency said in a statement. (Reporting by Dmitry Sergeyev, Andrei Ostroukh and Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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