(Adds economists' comments)
By Jan Strupczewski
BRUSSELS, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone industrial production rose month-on-month for a fifth time in a row in September, data showed on Thursday, indicating the euro zone economy returned to growth in the third quarter.
Industrial production in the 16-country area rose 0.3 percent month-on-month, European Union statistics office Eurostat said. Year-on-year, output fell 12.9 percent. [ID:nBRQ009589]
Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected a 0.4 percent monthly increase and a 14.1 percent annual decline.
"In the three months to September output rose 2.2 percent, which is the highest rate since the start of the series in early 1990," said Clemente de Lucia, economist at BNP Paribas.
"Given the high correlation between industrial production and GDP growth we can expect GDP to have increased by around 0.5-0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of the year," de Lucia said.
The European Commission expects third-quarter GDP to have risen 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, ending five quarters of contraction and in line with the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
The euro zone shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter and 2.5 percent in the first.
Eurostat publishes its first estimate of third-quarter GDP on Friday. Industrial production accounts for roughly 17 percent of gross domestic product in the euro zone.
"These figures confirm that tomorrow's Q3 GDP release will show that the euro zone economy expanded at a healthy clip. We have pencilled in a quarterly gain of 0.6 percent or so," said Ben May, economist at Capital Economics.
"Encouragingly, the business surveys suggest that the recovery looks set to continue. But given the strong euro and continued weakness of exports there are good reasons to remain cautious about the strength of the revival," he said.
Spanish data on Thursday showed its economy shrank for the sixth consecutive quarter from July to September, this time by 0.3 percent.
The slightly better-than-expected figures fuelled hopes that the euro zone as a whole would also surprise on the upside. Spain accounts for around 9 percent of the 16-nation bloc's GDP.
Eurostat said output of capital goods in the euro zone rose 1.7 percent month-on-month in September, non-durable consumer goods gained 1.1 percent and intermediate goods added 0.6 percent.
The biggest drag on overall output came from a 6.0 percent month-on-month slump in the production of durable consumer goods and a 2.1 percent fall in energy output.
"Consumer durable goods orders declined significantly in September, almost certainly reflecting the ending of some car scrappage schemes," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
But car scrapping schemes are likely to help manufacturers
for some time. Europe's second-biggest carmaker PSA Peugeot
Citroen
French carmakers expect strong sales in the final months of 2009 as drivers flock to take advantage of government scrapping schemes before year-end, contributing to uncertainty about 2010. (Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, editing by Mike Peacock)