UPDATE 1-Euro close to overvalued; growth risk -IMF official

Published 10/25/2010, 07:35 AM
Updated 10/25/2010, 07:40 AM

(Adds quote, detail)

WARSAW, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The euro is close to being overvalued and further gains could impede growth rates in the single currency area, Bas Bakker, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, told a news conference on Monday.

"(The) euro is at a level which we call close to overvaluation. A stronger euro means slower growth (in the euro zone). Should there be further appreciation, the effect will be larger but it is difficult to comment on day-to-day exchange-rate changes," Bakker said.

The euro has gained ground recently amid signs the European Central Bank is poised to wind down its stimulus programme as it moves to normalise monetary policy, in contrast to expectations of more quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks in other developed economies.

Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in South Korea at the weekend agreed to address global currency imbalances by moving towards market-determined exchange rates.

But in the absence of any major policy initiatives from the gathering, broad-based dollar selling resumed on Monday which drove the euro through resistance at $1.4051. [ID:nLDE69O14J]

"All else equal, the stronger the euro, the lower the growth of exports. But the euro is of course just one factor and it also matters what happens to global GDP growth and what happens with the recovery in the US," Bakker said.

"I would not focus on just one factor. Yes, more appreciation of the euro would slow growth somewhat, but it is only one factor."

Last week European central banker Christian Noyer said it was an "over-simplification" to call the single currency overvalued. [ID:nLDE69K2GV]

(Reporting by Marcin Goettig, writing by Karolina Slowikowska; Editing by John Stonestreet)

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